***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 13.2 17.1 120.6 69.6 55.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.8 13.4 17.1 108.3 65.3 55.6 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.9 16.4 16.3 112.6 66.6 55.0 6.1 10.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.6 22.6 18.4 106.9 64.3 51.9 9.6 15.8 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.7 23.3 18.0 109.8 65.8 52.6 9.1 15.4 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.6 22.1 95.1 59.5 49.7 6.2 11.0 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.1 13.0 17.6 110.6 66.0 56.5 4.1 7.7 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 24.1 27.1 18.8 106.5 64.2 52.2 13.0 19.9 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.4 17.6 17.9 116.4 68.3 54.7 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.4 21.7 19.6 110.7 65.8 53.5 9.8 15.1 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.1 15.6 16.3 104.7 64.0 50.0 7.0 11.1 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.9 17.0 15.8 103.8 63.8 50.6 6.6 11.6 18.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.8 14.7 19.5 102.1 63.0 51.1 5.3 9.8 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.1 17.1 19.4 108.7 64.7 56.6 6.6 11.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 6.7 16.5 16.6 103.9 63.5 49.8 6.1 11.0 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.3 14.7 17.5 100.0 62.1 49.3 6.1 10.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.5 11.8 16.8 108.7 65.4 55.4 4.2 7.5 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.4 16.8 22.0 113.2 66.6 56.1 6.6 10.9 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.9 16.1 16.6 108.2 65.2 55.2 5.3 9.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.7 18.2 24.3 116.2 67.6 56.7 8.0 12.3 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.2 18.0 16.6 121.2 69.9 55.3 5.7 10.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.6 13.6 16.5 111.6 66.6 55.4 4.9 8.6 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.2 13.0 16.4 109.5 65.6 55.6 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.7 17.4 19.2 110.8 65.6 55.6 6.0 10.8 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.7 17.6 20.5 119.1 69.0 56.1 5.0 9.6 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.0 15.4 16.8 104.1 63.8 51.8 6.7 10.9 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.4 19.5 20.0 118.6 68.8 55.9 5.9 11.0 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 14.2 15.4 17.1 101.2 62.3 49.8 7.0 11.3 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.2 26.5 22.3 114.4 66.9 56.7 10.1 17.0 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.6 14.7 17.0 109.4 65.6 55.5 4.8 9.0 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------