***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 47.7 63.1 109.4 63.6 55.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 53.7 48.4 65.8 110.2 64.3 57.1 28.4 38.5 49.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 52.5 56.0 63.1 107.5 62.3 55.4 34.2 46.2 59.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 71.4 74.6 74.3 105.3 60.8 55.6 51.4 64.9 79.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 59.7 61.5 72.6 103.9 59.7 55.1 39.0 52.6 67.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 41.3 57.4 96.4 99.8 55.1 51.4 42.5 53.7 66.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 26.9 50.1 66.6 110.7 64.7 57.5 27.2 38.3 51.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 72.8 99.1 81.0 104.5 59.9 55.0 74.0 89.3 106.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 55.1 56.9 70.2 104.1 60.0 54.9 36.8 48.8 62.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 66.3 67.1 80.8 103.4 59.1 54.5 46.9 59.7 73.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 52.1 52.3 69.3 102.3 58.5 54.0 36.4 46.7 58.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 42.8 57.6 69.1 103.2 59.1 53.8 43.6 52.6 62.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 35.9 49.0 82.1 99.6 55.5 51.2 36.5 46.0 55.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 65.6 65.0 75.5 101.3 57.5 53.4 43.9 57.9 74.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 48.1 49.6 69.3 104.1 60.0 53.9 33.2 43.1 54.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 38.1 51.8 75.4 101.0 57.0 52.7 39.0 47.8 57.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 45.8 48.2 63.9 106.2 61.2 55.2 26.3 38.5 52.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 66.3 66.8 89.1 103.0 58.8 54.6 48.2 60.2 73.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 38.3 61.7 64.4 109.0 63.4 56.3 39.0 50.9 64.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 61.9 65.5 101.5 106.4 61.4 56.7 44.4 56.5 69.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 49.2 52.3 62.7 105.5 61.1 54.8 32.7 43.8 56.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 48.4 49.6 62.0 103.9 59.7 54.4 31.2 42.2 54.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 49.9 53.1 64.1 107.0 62.0 55.4 32.1 43.6 56.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 64.0 64.4 75.8 102.6 58.5 54.0 44.0 57.1 71.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 53.7 57.3 74.8 106.1 61.4 54.8 35.3 47.7 62.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 34.7 51.8 76.5 103.9 59.3 53.8 36.0 45.8 56.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 56.4 60.9 72.7 108.5 63.0 55.3 38.4 50.4 63.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 50.6 51.7 72.5 104.0 59.8 54.5 36.5 45.8 55.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 84.7 86.0 91.0 103.2 58.8 54.7 67.5 79.4 92.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 59.1 53.2 65.5 110.6 64.6 57.1 28.7 40.6 54.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------