***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 8.2 8.4 9.5 -1.5 27.5 28.4 8.8 9.8 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 7.6 7.8 9.2 -1.4 28.2 29.3 8.1 9.3 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 9.4 9.7 9.5 -1.4 27.3 28.2 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.5 4.6 6.9 -1.2 30.5 31.7 4.8 5.9 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 6.0 6.1 7.5 -1.5 24.5 25.8 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.4 5.5 5.2 -0.9 33.9 34.9 5.5 6.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 7.9 8.1 9.3 -1.3 30.2 31.1 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 90 10 0 100 -0.4 -0.5 4.3 -1.8 17.4 18.9 0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 7.0 7.2 7.6 -1.3 25.9 27.0 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 6.9 6.9 5.5 -1.5 21.2 22.6 7.7 8.5 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 6.5 6.7 6.9 -1.4 23.7 24.9 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 5.0 5.0 5.7 -1.5 23.1 24.5 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.8 6.7 6.4 -0.7 34.4 35.2 6.6 7.4 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 7.8 7.9 7.4 -1.1 27.6 29.0 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 9.5 8.6 8.8 -0.6 38.6 39.3 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 7.8 7.8 6.8 -1.0 31.0 32.2 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 8.4 8.6 8.9 -1.3 29.1 30.2 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 4.6 4.7 5.1 -1.4 22.6 24.1 5.3 6.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 7.9 8.0 9.2 -1.3 28.2 29.4 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 89 11 0 100 1.7 1.6 3.1 -1.8 17.6 19.3 2.6 3.4 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 6.9 7.1 8.8 -1.4 25.8 26.7 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 7.5 7.7 9.1 -1.3 28.2 29.4 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 7.5 7.7 9.1 -1.2 28.6 29.7 8.0 8.9 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 7.2 7.3 7.4 -1.2 26.3 27.6 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 7.2 7.4 8.5 -1.8 24.3 25.4 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 6.1 6.4 5.4 -1.1 30.0 30.9 6.5 7.4 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 7.1 7.5 9.0 -1.7 26.4 27.5 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.5 6.6 7.7 -0.7 36.7 37.6 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 4.0 3.9 4.1 -1.6 19.2 21.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 7.8 7.9 9.4 -1.4 27.7 28.7 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------