***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 8.8 8.7 9.2 -1.6 24.2 31.5 9.3 10.3 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 8.7 9.0 9.1 -1.3 26.9 34.1 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 10.3 10.3 9.4 -1.4 25.0 32.7 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 5.3 5.3 6.7 -1.4 25.4 32.6 5.9 7.0 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 7.1 6.8 7.1 -1.7 20.8 30.0 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 6.3 6.2 4.9 -1.4 23.8 32.2 6.7 7.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 8.8 9.1 9.2 -1.3 28.3 35.1 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 1.0 0.5 4.7 -1.6 20.3 31.3 1.5 2.5 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 8.2 8.0 7.4 -1.4 22.9 31.6 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 8.2 7.9 5.7 -1.6 21.1 31.3 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 7.9 7.6 6.7 -1.5 22.5 32.0 8.3 9.2 10.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 6.5 6.2 5.7 -1.5 22.2 32.8 6.8 7.6 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 7.6 7.3 5.6 -1.5 22.1 32.7 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 8.7 8.6 7.1 -1.6 20.7 29.8 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 9.4 9.7 8.5 -1.0 30.7 35.5 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 8.3 8.0 6.2 -1.5 22.4 32.4 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 9.3 9.5 8.9 -1.3 27.7 34.8 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 6.6 6.3 5.0 -1.6 20.7 31.1 7.0 7.7 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 8.8 9.0 9.1 -1.3 26.7 34.0 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 3.4 2.8 2.9 -1.8 18.1 29.5 3.7 4.4 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 8.1 8.0 8.6 -1.5 22.6 31.0 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 8.5 8.6 8.9 -1.4 25.7 33.2 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 8.6 8.8 9.1 -1.3 26.7 34.1 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 8.5 8.4 7.1 -1.5 22.5 31.9 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 8.4 8.1 8.0 -1.8 21.4 29.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 7.2 6.9 4.9 -1.5 21.5 31.9 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 8.7 8.6 8.7 -1.6 23.6 30.9 9.3 10.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 7.4 7.4 7.3 -1.2 27.9 34.7 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 5.3 4.7 4.2 -1.7 18.6 30.1 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 8.8 9.0 9.3 -1.4 26.6 33.8 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------