***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 10.1 10.4 11.0 -0.6 33.6 37.3 10.3 10.9 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 10.0 10.4 10.9 -0.4 38.5 40.8 10.2 10.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 11.6 11.9 11.1 -0.5 34.8 38.2 11.9 12.5 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 6.4 6.7 8.4 -0.6 33.0 37.5 6.7 7.5 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 8.5 8.6 8.5 -0.8 25.4 31.5 8.8 9.3 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 7.4 7.6 6.4 -0.5 34.0 38.3 7.6 8.1 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 10.1 10.5 11.0 -0.3 40.6 42.3 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 2.2 2.0 5.9 -1.0 20.6 28.0 2.5 3.1 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 9.4 9.5 8.8 -0.7 28.4 33.6 9.7 10.1 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 9.3 9.3 7.0 -0.8 23.9 30.6 9.6 10.1 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 9.1 9.2 7.9 -0.7 26.7 32.9 9.4 9.8 10.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 7.4 7.4 7.0 -0.8 25.6 32.1 7.6 8.1 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 8.6 8.8 6.9 -0.6 30.7 36.3 8.8 9.3 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 9.9 10.0 8.5 -0.7 27.3 32.6 10.2 10.7 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 10.4 10.8 10.0 -0.2 44.2 45.6 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 9.6 9.8 7.6 -0.6 30.8 36.2 9.9 10.5 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 10.4 10.8 10.7 -0.4 38.7 40.9 10.6 11.1 11.6 29 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 7.4 7.5 6.3 -0.8 23.8 30.7 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 10.1 10.5 10.9 -0.4 37.8 40.3 10.3 10.9 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 4.0 3.8 4.1 -1.1 17.9 26.3 4.3 4.8 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 9.4 9.5 10.1 -0.7 29.4 34.2 9.6 10.1 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 9.6 9.9 10.5 -0.5 35.5 38.4 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 9.8 10.1 10.7 -0.4 37.0 39.6 10.0 10.5 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 9.4 9.6 8.5 -0.7 28.5 33.9 9.7 10.2 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 9.7 9.8 9.7 -0.8 27.5 32.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 8.2 8.4 6.4 -0.6 29.8 35.3 8.5 9.0 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 10.0 10.3 10.4 -0.7 31.8 35.9 10.3 11.0 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 8.4 8.7 8.9 -0.3 39.1 42.1 8.6 9.0 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 6.4 6.2 5.5 -0.9 20.7 28.3 6.7 7.4 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 10.2 10.5 11.1 -0.4 37.9 40.5 10.4 10.9 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------