***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 20.3 20.3 18.5 -2.1 25.2 27.5 21.0 22.3 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 19.6 19.8 18.5 -2.2 24.1 26.8 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 19.9 19.8 18.4 -2.5 22.9 25.4 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 12.8 13.1 15.9 -1.5 32.4 33.7 13.2 14.6 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 19.8 19.8 16.8 -2.3 24.4 26.4 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 18.4 18.7 15.4 -1.5 33.0 34.6 18.7 20.2 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 19.4 19.6 18.5 -2.1 25.7 28.1 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 6.8 6.7 14.5 -2.6 22.6 24.7 7.9 9.5 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 19.3 19.3 17.7 -2.3 24.4 26.4 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 19.3 19.2 15.7 -2.6 23.2 25.3 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 19.4 19.5 17.3 -2.2 25.8 27.8 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 18.5 18.7 16.0 -2.0 27.5 29.4 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 19.6 20.0 17.5 -1.5 33.0 34.7 20.0 21.5 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 93 7 0 100 18.8 18.5 16.4 -3.5 15.8 18.4 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 22.2 21.0 19.0 -0.8 39.6 40.4 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 20.1 20.4 17.2 -1.6 31.3 33.1 20.6 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 18.8 19.0 18.2 -2.2 24.5 26.8 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 18.4 18.1 14.3 -3.2 18.7 21.0 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 19.3 19.3 18.3 -2.4 22.5 25.3 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 86 14 0 100 12.9 12.4 12.0 -3.5 16.3 18.7 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 19.4 19.4 18.2 -2.6 22.0 24.1 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 19.1 18.9 17.6 -2.8 18.4 21.2 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 19.7 19.4 18.1 -2.6 21.4 24.3 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 18.9 18.6 16.6 -3.2 18.1 20.5 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 19.6 19.6 17.2 -2.4 22.8 25.0 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 18.8 19.4 15.8 -1.3 35.4 36.5 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 19.6 19.5 17.8 -2.4 23.1 25.4 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 22.3 20.8 17.3 -1.1 36.8 37.8 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 12.9 12.5 13.4 -3.5 16.6 18.9 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 19.6 19.7 18.5 -2.2 24.4 27.0 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------