***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 20.1 21.2 19.3 -0.9 37.6 41.1 20.8 22.4 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 20.1 21.8 19.8 -0.5 43.8 44.4 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 20.3 21.4 19.4 -1.0 37.7 40.6 20.9 22.5 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 13.2 14.0 16.1 -1.3 33.4 37.8 13.9 15.3 16.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 20.3 20.7 16.8 -1.7 28.9 35.2 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 18.7 19.1 14.5 -1.8 28.6 34.7 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 19.9 21.5 19.7 -0.5 43.6 44.6 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 7.6 7.8 14.5 -2.1 25.1 32.7 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 19.6 20.2 17.6 -1.6 30.3 36.1 20.4 22.0 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 19.5 19.9 15.6 -1.9 27.8 34.3 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 19.6 20.0 16.8 -1.8 28.4 34.9 20.5 22.0 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 18.7 19.3 15.8 -1.7 28.3 35.0 19.7 21.2 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 19.8 20.3 16.1 -1.6 30.2 36.0 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 19.9 20.4 17.2 -1.7 29.2 35.0 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 20.6 21.7 18.4 -0.8 38.9 41.2 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 20.3 20.9 16.4 -1.6 30.0 35.8 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 19.4 21.2 19.7 -0.3 45.8 45.9 20.1 21.6 23.1 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 18.9 19.2 14.8 -2.1 26.0 33.0 19.9 21.4 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 19.7 21.3 19.7 -0.6 42.5 43.5 20.4 21.9 23.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 13.9 13.9 12.2 -2.5 22.0 30.4 15.0 16.5 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 19.9 20.5 18.5 -1.5 31.1 36.6 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 19.9 21.3 19.1 -0.7 40.0 42.1 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 20.2 21.5 19.5 -0.7 41.0 42.4 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 19.5 20.0 17.1 -1.7 29.3 35.1 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 20.1 20.7 17.5 -1.4 31.7 37.2 20.8 22.3 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 19.2 19.9 15.3 -1.4 32.3 37.3 20.0 21.4 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 19.9 20.8 18.5 -1.1 35.1 39.6 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 20.5 21.3 16.9 -1.2 34.5 38.4 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 13.8 13.9 13.8 -2.3 23.7 31.4 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 19.9 21.4 19.7 -0.6 42.2 43.5 20.6 22.1 23.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------