***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 24.1 24.7 22.4 0.9 62.2 58.1 21.9 23.6 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 24.5 25.8 22.8 1.5 68.5 61.8 22.3 24.0 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 24.5 25.2 22.8 1.0 62.9 58.4 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 17.1 17.5 20.1 0.8 61.2 57.9 15.0 16.5 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 24.7 24.6 20.2 0.4 55.6 53.6 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 23.0 22.8 17.8 0.3 53.3 51.6 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 24.0 25.2 22.8 1.4 68.0 61.5 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.1 18.2 0.1 51.6 50.6 10.5 12.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 24.1 24.1 20.6 0.5 55.7 53.5 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 23.9 23.7 19.2 0.3 53.8 52.1 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 24.2 24.2 20.0 0.5 56.1 53.9 22.2 23.7 25.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 23.3 23.2 19.5 0.5 55.5 53.3 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.2 18.7 0.4 54.8 52.8 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.1 20.2 0.3 53.3 51.6 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 25.5 25.5 21.2 1.3 67.4 62.2 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 24.9 25.0 19.6 0.6 57.8 55.1 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 23.7 25.0 22.7 1.5 69.0 62.1 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.2 18.6 0.2 52.1 50.8 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 23.9 25.0 22.8 1.4 66.7 60.5 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.7 17.7 15.5 -0.3 46.1 46.5 16.5 18.0 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 24.3 24.3 21.5 0.5 56.4 54.1 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 24.4 25.1 22.2 1.1 63.6 58.1 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 24.4 25.1 22.5 1.1 63.2 58.1 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 23.8 23.7 20.3 0.4 54.8 52.8 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 24.2 24.4 20.4 0.6 57.8 55.3 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 23.6 23.7 18.8 0.6 57.9 54.8 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 24.1 24.5 21.5 0.8 60.3 56.9 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 24.4 25.0 20.4 1.0 63.3 59.4 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.6 17.9 17.4 -0.1 48.9 48.5 16.4 18.0 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 24.2 25.4 22.8 1.4 67.1 61.0 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------