***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 24.9 25.0 24.0 1.6 68.8 62.8 21.9 23.4 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 25.3 25.5 24.3 2.1 73.1 66.2 22.6 23.8 25.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 25.2 25.2 24.3 1.6 68.2 62.5 22.4 23.8 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.0 18.0 21.7 1.4 67.5 61.1 15.0 16.5 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 24.4 24.9 21.8 1.0 62.2 58.0 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 22.9 23.4 19.7 1.1 62.9 57.5 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 24.9 25.1 24.3 2.0 72.7 65.8 22.3 23.5 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.9 20.0 0.9 60.6 57.0 10.7 12.1 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 23.7 24.2 22.1 1.0 61.9 58.0 21.8 23.2 24.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 23.7 24.1 20.8 0.9 60.9 57.3 21.9 23.2 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 24.0 24.6 21.7 1.2 63.7 59.0 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.6 21.4 1.3 65.0 59.8 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 24.1 24.8 20.6 1.3 64.9 59.5 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.3 24.5 21.6 0.8 59.5 57.4 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 25.6 26.0 22.9 1.8 72.8 64.1 23.0 24.3 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 24.6 25.5 21.4 1.4 66.3 60.4 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 24.8 25.0 24.2 2.0 72.6 66.2 22.0 23.3 24.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 23.3 23.5 20.2 0.8 58.9 56.2 21.6 22.8 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 24.9 25.0 24.3 2.0 71.7 65.4 22.2 23.4 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.6 18.5 17.3 0.4 55.0 53.5 16.7 18.1 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 24.0 24.5 23.1 1.1 62.6 58.5 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 25.2 25.2 23.6 1.7 68.9 64.1 22.5 23.8 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 25.3 25.2 24.1 1.7 68.9 63.6 22.5 23.8 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 23.7 24.0 21.8 1.0 60.7 57.7 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 24.2 24.8 22.0 1.2 64.6 59.6 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 23.4 24.5 20.9 1.6 69.7 62.6 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 23.9 24.8 23.1 1.4 67.1 61.6 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.8 22.1 1.6 69.7 62.3 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.5 18.5 19.0 0.6 56.2 54.4 16.7 18.0 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 25.2 25.4 24.3 2.0 72.4 65.5 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------