***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 7.5 9.8 24.0 148.0 77.2 68.9 2.0 4.0 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 8.3 10.2 20.2 143.1 76.2 65.8 2.4 4.5 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 10.4 12.9 22.7 145.2 76.6 67.5 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 11.1 15.0 21.6 116.9 68.2 62.3 6.1 9.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 7.8 12.0 22.1 129.3 72.4 64.3 3.9 6.6 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.1 10.4 18.5 100.0 61.7 55.2 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 8.8 10.0 19.6 137.1 74.6 64.8 2.7 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 18.1 21.7 22.0 103.3 63.2 57.2 9.9 15.7 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 9.2 13.6 21.3 124.2 71.0 62.5 4.7 7.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 9.7 13.1 23.3 111.6 66.4 59.2 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 7.9 11.3 20.0 115.8 68.2 61.0 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 9.7 11.7 17.9 102.3 63.1 56.5 4.6 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.3 11.0 16.5 92.8 59.3 51.8 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 13.7 16.9 29.1 144.8 76.7 68.7 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.5 16.5 98.0 62.5 54.7 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.7 9.5 17.6 106.5 64.8 57.9 3.4 6.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 9.3 10.4 19.0 138.2 74.9 63.5 2.1 4.4 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 11.0 17.2 26.1 121.5 69.8 63.4 4.7 9.2 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 10.2 13.1 21.1 147.3 77.2 67.2 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 10.2 12.9 23.5 110.0 65.4 59.8 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 9.1 10.4 22.2 133.6 73.6 65.2 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 9.7 12.8 21.9 156.5 79.3 66.6 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 10.8 13.7 22.5 150.9 78.0 69.0 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 8.6 15.7 25.9 138.1 74.7 66.8 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 10.3 13.4 27.6 151.8 78.1 69.6 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.9 9.2 16.3 91.1 58.7 51.9 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 9.7 12.0 25.7 148.3 77.3 69.4 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.9 9.4 18.0 101.5 63.3 57.1 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 14.4 22.0 26.8 125.9 71.2 64.1 6.7 11.9 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 6.5 7.9 20.8 141.1 75.6 66.0 1.9 3.6 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------