***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.7 17.0 97.6 61.3 49.1 4.5 8.3 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.8 10.4 14.2 90.7 57.9 46.1 4.4 8.2 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.8 16.5 89.9 57.3 47.4 4.8 8.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 17.0 17.7 20.9 99.0 60.9 48.2 6.4 12.5 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.8 20.7 100.3 61.5 51.0 4.9 9.5 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.9 15.8 23.3 100.5 60.9 51.7 5.6 11.1 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.1 11.9 15.0 97.1 61.2 48.1 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 23.5 24.5 21.5 96.9 60.2 50.0 10.5 18.4 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.8 20.6 97.6 60.2 50.8 5.5 10.1 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.2 15.0 23.0 100.7 62.1 52.1 5.8 10.5 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.8 12.6 20.3 96.2 59.5 48.6 5.4 9.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 15.0 15.2 19.2 95.5 59.4 49.3 7.2 11.9 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.7 23.1 102.2 61.5 52.3 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.6 15.6 20.5 90.2 57.4 48.3 7.1 12.6 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 5.0 12.4 19.3 96.0 61.0 47.5 4.6 8.8 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.5 20.6 95.7 58.8 48.7 4.7 8.7 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 6.0 13.9 13.6 89.5 57.9 44.7 5.8 10.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.7 15.7 23.1 98.7 60.8 51.5 6.6 11.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.1 14.4 89.0 57.4 47.0 8.3 14.0 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.9 16.3 25.8 107.2 64.3 54.7 7.4 11.7 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.3 14.6 19.6 99.5 61.4 51.5 5.7 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.9 10.3 12.7 79.5 53.6 43.9 5.8 9.4 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.1 15.7 89.0 57.5 48.0 6.1 10.6 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.4 20.9 95.3 59.4 49.9 6.6 12.3 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 6.4 14.8 20.0 96.2 59.5 46.6 6.0 11.0 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.9 20.7 99.3 61.0 52.1 5.0 8.8 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.9 14.8 18.2 95.7 59.8 46.6 6.5 11.3 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.8 13.5 19.7 96.7 60.5 48.0 5.5 9.9 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.9 20.8 24.4 102.0 61.9 52.5 8.8 15.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.1 12.5 14.9 91.6 58.7 47.2 4.4 9.1 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------