***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.8 13.2 15.9 95.3 62.0 48.2 4.6 8.9 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.4 12.8 76.4 53.8 43.2 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.8 13.7 15.2 90.3 59.7 48.0 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.1 14.0 18.3 92.1 59.6 48.6 5.5 10.4 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.5 11.1 17.3 91.2 59.3 48.5 3.9 7.9 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 5.9 10.2 18.6 79.7 52.7 43.0 6.0 9.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.8 7.7 12.3 73.8 51.8 41.2 3.6 7.3 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.6 20.1 18.7 88.4 57.4 47.7 11.4 17.1 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.2 18.1 90.9 59.3 48.4 4.4 8.4 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.7 15.5 20.1 88.7 57.9 48.0 7.4 12.5 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.0 16.0 89.7 58.6 47.6 3.8 7.4 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.6 15.8 85.7 56.6 46.3 4.1 7.2 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.2 17.3 79.7 53.4 43.9 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.3 12.8 18.9 82.3 55.8 47.5 4.9 10.4 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.5 6.2 17.1 89.8 60.2 47.8 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.3 16.9 85.7 56.6 46.4 5.6 9.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.5 7.8 11.8 69.1 50.2 40.1 4.4 7.8 12.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.8 22.4 91.1 58.9 50.4 6.9 12.2 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.3 13.3 78.9 55.0 44.5 4.2 7.9 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.9 21.6 91.0 58.0 50.6 6.0 11.5 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.7 9.9 17.2 96.8 62.0 49.9 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.6 10.5 12.2 67.6 50.0 41.4 5.8 10.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.9 9.9 13.9 81.7 56.1 45.8 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.1 19.5 89.3 58.9 49.6 6.1 10.8 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.3 11.0 17.8 92.7 60.5 49.5 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.0 8.8 16.7 82.2 55.2 45.3 4.1 7.4 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.8 13.0 16.5 90.1 59.8 47.8 5.3 9.7 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.8 9.0 18.1 91.0 59.7 48.5 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.8 22.3 92.1 58.8 50.8 9.6 15.2 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.7 9.9 13.6 81.5 56.0 44.6 4.4 8.1 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------