***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 52.7 54.2 72.2 105.1 60.5 54.9 34.8 46.3 58.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 44.0 40.9 61.1 95.8 53.6 49.2 28.4 38.5 49.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 52.7 53.2 70.6 102.7 58.7 54.2 34.2 46.2 59.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 71.4 70.1 78.5 99.2 55.9 50.9 51.4 64.9 79.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 59.4 62.2 79.0 105.1 60.5 54.7 39.0 52.6 67.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 58.5 54.4 82.5 94.7 50.8 47.6 42.5 53.7 66.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 44.3 40.1 60.6 94.5 52.5 48.3 27.2 38.3 51.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 72.8 93.2 84.1 98.0 54.0 48.9 74.0 89.3 106.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 54.8 56.4 80.2 103.6 59.3 54.0 36.8 48.8 62.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 66.6 65.4 89.6 101.0 56.9 51.3 46.9 59.7 73.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 52.1 51.5 74.5 101.2 57.3 51.6 36.4 46.7 58.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 57.1 53.9 70.6 95.5 52.5 47.9 43.6 52.6 62.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 50.8 45.8 76.0 92.8 49.7 46.3 36.5 46.0 55.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 65.9 64.0 89.0 100.0 56.3 52.0 43.9 57.9 74.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 48.6 44.1 69.1 92.7 51.7 46.9 33.2 43.1 54.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 52.1 49.5 73.1 95.9 52.8 48.6 39.0 47.8 57.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 26.3 38.2 57.1 90.3 49.5 45.2 26.3 38.5 52.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 66.3 66.8 96.8 103.3 58.8 53.3 48.2 60.2 73.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 56.7 54.7 63.0 97.4 55.0 50.7 39.0 50.9 64.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 62.7 63.9 95.8 104.4 59.6 54.0 44.4 56.5 69.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 49.4 52.5 77.2 106.4 61.5 56.2 32.7 43.8 56.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 48.4 43.3 60.6 92.3 51.5 47.5 31.2 42.2 54.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 49.4 48.2 66.5 98.9 56.1 52.2 32.1 43.6 56.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 64.0 65.1 87.4 103.6 59.3 54.4 44.0 57.1 71.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 54.5 56.7 82.8 105.2 60.5 54.4 35.3 47.7 62.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 50.6 46.5 72.2 93.7 51.0 47.8 36.0 45.8 56.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 56.7 56.8 76.4 102.5 58.3 52.9 38.4 50.4 63.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 50.2 47.6 73.8 95.3 53.1 48.6 36.5 45.8 55.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 85.2 87.3 98.1 105.4 60.5 54.6 67.5 79.4 92.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 47.4 44.5 63.4 97.5 54.9 50.5 28.7 40.6 54.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------