***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-06.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 13.9 14.4 3.4 95.7 94.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 11.5 14.0 14.2 3.4 96.7 95.6 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 13.2 15.6 13.9 3.1 96.2 95.0 10.4 11.5 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 8.1 9.5 10.9 2.5 91.2 89.4 5.1 6.2 7.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 9.7 10.9 10.8 2.1 89.3 87.5 7.0 8.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 8.2 9.7 8.7 2.5 93.6 91.1 5.9 6.7 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 11.3 13.4 14.0 3.2 95.6 94.5 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 3.7 5.9 9.2 2.7 96.4 94.7 1.1 2.0 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 10.3 11.6 11.2 2.1 92.1 90.1 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 10.2 11.8 9.8 2.4 94.4 92.4 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 9.7 11.0 10.3 2.2 92.8 90.7 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 8.2 9.5 9.5 2.4 93.3 91.5 6.0 6.8 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 8.9 9.1 8.1 1.1 75.3 72.9 7.0 7.8 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 10.8 12.2 11.7 2.4 94.0 92.5 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 11.1 12.5 12.0 2.4 92.8 90.7 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 10.7 11.4 9.3 1.6 84.7 82.2 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 11.4 13.4 13.8 3.3 96.8 95.4 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 7.9 9.3 8.8 2.2 94.0 92.1 5.7 6.5 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 11.2 13.4 14.1 3.3 96.9 95.7 8.8 9.6 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 5.1 6.6 6.8 2.4 95.1 92.9 3.0 3.7 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 10.4 12.1 13.1 2.7 94.2 92.8 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 10.5 12.4 13.7 3.1 96.8 95.2 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 10.8 12.8 13.7 3.2 96.8 95.5 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 10.2 11.8 11.3 2.5 95.2 93.6 8.2 8.9 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 11.2 12.9 13.0 3.1 93.7 92.5 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 8.7 8.9 7.8 1.2 74.5 72.7 6.9 7.7 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 12.4 14.8 13.5 3.1 93.5 92.3 8.5 9.9 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 9.0 10.0 11.1 2.3 90.6 88.2 6.7 7.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 8.1 10.2 8.0 2.2 95.1 92.9 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 11.7 14.2 14.3 3.3 96.3 95.2 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------