***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 10.6 11.5 0.3 57.1 56.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 11.8 11.2 11.6 0.5 59.2 58.5 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.6 11.3 0.4 57.8 57.2 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.6 9.4 0.2 55.3 54.8 6.1 7.2 8.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.0 9.2 0.2 54.6 54.3 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.0 7.4 0.3 56.7 55.7 6.8 7.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.0 11.6 0.4 58.7 58.0 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 3.0 2.9 7.4 0.2 54.6 54.2 1.7 2.6 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.9 9.6 0.2 54.8 54.7 8.7 9.7 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.8 8.1 0.2 54.5 54.3 8.7 9.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.5 8.6 0.2 55.4 54.8 8.4 9.3 10.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.9 8.2 0.2 55.3 54.7 6.8 7.6 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.2 7.8 0.2 55.7 54.9 8.1 8.9 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.5 9.5 0.3 55.8 56.2 9.4 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.0 10.1 0.3 57.4 56.4 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.3 8.4 0.3 55.8 55.1 8.9 10.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 11.9 11.4 11.5 0.5 59.7 58.9 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.2 7.5 0.2 54.8 54.8 7.1 8.0 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 11.6 11.0 11.5 0.4 59.2 58.5 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.6 5.6 0.1 52.7 53.0 3.6 4.5 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.9 10.6 0.2 55.4 55.2 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 11.1 10.5 11.3 0.5 59.6 58.8 9.1 10.0 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 11.1 10.6 11.1 0.4 58.4 58.0 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.1 9.3 0.3 56.6 56.5 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.2 10.1 0.2 55.2 55.1 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.8 7.8 0.2 53.6 53.4 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.0 10.8 0.3 56.0 55.9 9.5 10.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.0 9.6 0.3 56.1 55.3 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.3 6.7 0.2 54.0 54.4 6.0 7.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.1 11.6 0.4 58.7 58.1 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------