***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 12.2 12.3 0.0 49.4 50.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 10.5 11.8 12.4 0.1 52.5 52.1 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 12.0 13.2 12.1 -0.1 48.1 49.4 12.3 13.4 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.0 8.1 10.1 -0.2 45.0 47.4 7.2 8.5 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 9.2 10.0 9.9 -0.2 44.4 47.0 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.0 8.8 8.0 -0.1 46.4 48.4 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 10.4 11.9 12.4 0.2 53.0 52.5 10.7 11.7 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 2.7 3.7 8.0 -0.3 44.2 46.7 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 10.0 10.9 10.3 -0.2 46.1 48.1 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 10.0 10.7 8.8 -0.2 45.1 47.5 10.2 10.9 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 9.8 10.5 9.3 -0.2 44.3 46.9 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 7.8 8.6 8.8 -0.3 43.4 46.3 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 9.3 10.0 8.4 -0.3 43.7 46.5 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 10.4 11.2 10.1 -0.4 41.9 45.6 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 10.8 11.6 10.8 0.0 49.2 50.3 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 10.1 11.0 9.0 -0.3 43.5 46.4 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.7 12.2 12.3 0.2 54.2 53.1 11.0 12.0 12.9 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 8.3 9.0 8.1 -0.3 43.9 46.9 8.5 9.2 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 10.6 11.9 12.3 0.1 51.1 51.2 10.9 11.8 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.4 5.0 6.1 -0.3 43.6 46.2 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 10.0 10.9 11.4 -0.1 47.0 48.6 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 10.0 11.2 12.0 0.1 51.0 51.0 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 10.2 11.3 11.8 -0.1 48.1 49.4 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 9.9 10.7 10.0 -0.3 44.1 47.0 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 10.3 11.3 10.8 -0.1 48.6 49.5 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 9.0 9.6 8.4 -0.3 42.9 45.2 9.1 10.0 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 10.4 11.9 11.6 0.0 49.9 50.3 10.7 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 8.9 9.6 10.3 -0.2 44.9 47.4 9.0 9.8 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.8 7.8 7.2 -0.3 42.5 45.9 7.1 8.2 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 10.6 11.9 12.4 0.1 51.2 51.4 10.8 11.9 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------