***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 11.8 12.9 0.9 74.7 70.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 11.8 12.1 12.9 1.0 77.6 72.2 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 13.4 13.6 12.6 0.8 74.2 69.5 12.1 12.7 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 8.3 8.4 10.4 0.6 69.1 65.3 6.9 7.6 8.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.9 10.2 0.5 65.7 62.6 9.0 9.5 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 8.8 9.0 8.3 0.6 72.6 67.7 7.7 8.2 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 11.7 11.9 12.9 0.9 75.8 70.8 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 3.9 4.0 8.4 0.6 72.4 67.5 2.7 3.3 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.8 10.6 0.5 66.9 63.6 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.4 10.8 9.1 0.5 69.7 65.3 9.7 10.2 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 10.4 10.5 9.7 0.5 68.4 64.3 9.5 9.9 10.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 8.7 8.7 9.1 0.5 69.1 65.1 7.7 8.2 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.7 8.5 0.2 57.7 55.9 9.0 9.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 11.5 11.4 10.7 0.5 67.3 63.7 10.4 10.9 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 11.7 11.9 11.2 0.7 73.1 68.5 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.0 9.2 0.4 63.0 60.1 10.0 10.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 12.0 12.3 12.7 1.0 78.8 73.0 10.8 11.3 11.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.6 9.0 8.4 0.5 68.0 63.7 7.9 8.4 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 11.7 11.9 12.8 1.0 77.2 71.9 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 5.1 5.5 6.5 0.5 68.2 63.8 4.4 4.9 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 10.8 10.9 11.8 0.6 70.3 66.4 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 11.1 11.3 12.6 0.9 77.1 71.7 9.9 10.5 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 11.3 11.4 12.4 0.8 75.1 70.0 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 10.9 10.9 10.4 0.6 70.0 65.6 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 11.3 11.4 11.4 0.8 72.6 68.5 10.1 10.7 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.4 8.4 0.2 57.2 55.8 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 11.9 12.1 12.1 0.8 72.9 68.8 10.5 11.2 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 9.6 9.7 10.6 0.5 69.0 64.9 8.7 9.1 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 7.7 8.2 7.6 0.5 67.7 63.1 6.9 7.5 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 11.8 12.0 13.0 0.9 76.3 71.3 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------