***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-06.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 9999.0 26.3 24.8 3.6 93.2 90.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 24.4 27.4 25.3 4.1 95.4 92.4 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 24.4 26.4 24.9 3.6 92.0 89.1 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 16.9 17.9 21.6 2.9 86.0 83.7 13.5 14.7 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 24.2 25.5 22.7 3.1 88.0 85.6 20.9 22.2 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 22.5 23.2 19.8 2.7 81.3 79.6 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 24.0 26.8 25.2 4.1 95.6 92.6 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 12.1 13.5 20.7 3.1 86.9 84.7 8.1 9.7 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 23.8 25.3 23.7 3.3 89.7 87.2 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 23.7 24.9 21.9 3.2 88.1 85.8 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 23.8 25.0 22.4 3.1 86.6 84.6 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 22.9 24.1 21.4 3.1 86.3 84.3 19.5 20.8 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 23.8 25.0 21.6 3.1 86.3 84.4 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 24.1 26.0 23.7 3.6 91.1 87.8 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 23.7 24.8 23.1 3.0 87.2 84.9 20.7 21.9 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 24.3 25.4 22.0 3.0 85.6 83.6 20.8 22.2 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 23.6 27.1 25.2 4.4 96.8 93.7 20.0 21.4 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 23.3 24.8 21.3 3.4 89.3 86.5 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 24.0 26.7 25.2 4.0 94.6 91.5 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 18.6 20.1 18.9 3.2 88.7 86.0 14.6 16.1 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 24.1 25.8 24.5 3.4 90.5 87.7 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 24.2 27.6 25.0 4.1 96.3 93.1 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 24.2 26.5 25.0 3.8 93.2 90.0 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 23.7 25.3 23.3 3.5 90.3 87.3 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 23.9 25.5 23.3 3.4 91.1 88.2 20.8 21.9 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 23.0 24.4 20.7 3.2 87.3 85.2 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 23.9 25.9 24.2 3.7 93.5 90.5 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 23.8 24.5 22.1 2.7 83.9 81.8 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 18.4 20.2 20.6 3.5 90.2 87.3 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 24.2 26.7 25.2 3.9 94.4 91.5 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------