***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 22.0 20.7 -0.3 45.5 47.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 23.2 22.5 20.9 -0.1 48.4 49.3 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 23.4 22.3 20.7 -0.4 44.9 46.5 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 14.0 14.9 18.7 -0.6 40.8 43.3 14.3 15.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 21.2 22.1 18.7 -0.7 40.4 42.9 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 19.7 20.5 16.6 -0.7 39.8 42.4 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 22.8 22.1 20.8 -0.1 48.6 49.4 20.7 22.2 23.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.6 16.9 -0.8 39.4 41.9 9.1 10.5 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 22.8 21.4 19.1 -0.6 41.3 43.6 20.7 22.2 23.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 20.5 21.3 17.8 -0.7 40.5 42.9 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 20.6 21.4 18.2 -0.7 39.6 42.3 20.9 22.3 23.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 19.9 20.6 17.7 -0.8 38.8 41.5 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 20.7 21.5 17.3 -0.8 38.7 41.4 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.2 22.0 19.0 -0.6 42.7 44.5 21.2 22.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 21.1 22.3 19.3 -0.4 43.0 45.2 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 21.3 22.1 17.9 -0.8 38.9 41.7 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 22.5 21.9 20.8 0.0 50.2 50.6 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 22.3 21.0 17.1 -0.7 41.4 43.4 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 22.8 22.0 20.9 -0.2 47.5 48.6 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.4 16.0 14.8 -0.7 40.5 42.5 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 20.8 21.8 20.0 -0.6 42.4 44.6 21.0 22.5 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 23.2 22.5 20.7 -0.1 49.3 50.0 21.0 22.5 24.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 23.2 22.3 20.6 -0.3 45.8 47.2 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.7 21.5 18.9 -0.6 42.6 44.5 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 23.1 22.0 19.1 -0.5 43.5 45.4 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 22.5 20.9 17.0 -0.8 38.3 41.0 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 22.8 21.9 19.9 -0.3 45.4 46.9 20.8 22.3 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 21.2 22.1 18.9 -0.6 40.4 43.1 21.5 22.8 24.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.0 16.0 -0.7 41.4 43.2 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 23.0 22.2 20.9 -0.2 47.5 48.5 20.9 22.4 23.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------