***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 24.8 23.3 -0.1 48.4 47.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 24.7 24.1 23.4 -0.1 49.1 47.4 23.0 24.2 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 22.6 24.0 23.3 -0.2 47.3 46.4 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 15.1 16.4 21.3 -0.3 45.9 45.6 15.3 16.7 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 22.5 23.8 21.3 -0.4 44.8 44.9 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 20.9 22.2 19.1 -0.3 45.9 46.1 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.8 23.3 0.0 49.6 47.8 22.6 23.8 24.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.6 19.4 -0.6 42.0 43.3 10.8 12.2 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 22.0 23.2 21.7 -0.3 45.4 45.2 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 22.0 23.1 20.3 -0.5 44.0 44.4 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 22.1 23.3 20.8 -0.4 44.0 44.6 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 21.2 22.1 20.3 -0.6 42.2 43.6 21.4 22.7 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 22.2 23.3 19.8 -0.5 43.4 44.5 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 22.5 23.8 21.5 -0.4 45.2 44.9 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.3 21.8 -0.1 48.4 47.4 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 22.7 23.9 20.4 -0.4 44.1 44.8 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.6 23.2 0.0 50.2 48.0 22.4 23.6 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 21.7 22.7 19.5 -0.5 44.0 44.3 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 22.3 23.6 23.4 -0.1 48.4 47.0 22.5 23.7 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 16.6 17.7 17.1 -0.6 41.4 42.5 16.9 18.4 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 22.2 23.6 22.6 -0.3 46.1 45.7 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.6 24.1 23.1 0.0 49.3 47.4 22.9 24.1 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 22.7 24.0 23.1 -0.2 47.3 46.3 23.0 24.2 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 22.0 23.2 21.4 -0.4 45.3 45.1 22.3 23.6 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 24.5 23.7 21.7 -0.2 47.5 46.6 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 21.7 22.6 19.6 -0.6 42.5 44.1 21.9 23.2 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.6 22.4 -0.1 48.7 47.4 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 22.8 24.1 21.5 -0.3 46.1 45.9 23.0 24.4 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 16.7 17.8 18.4 -0.5 43.3 43.7 17.0 18.3 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 24.5 23.9 23.5 -0.1 48.7 47.3 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------