***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 24.1 22.6 0.7 64.5 62.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 24.3 24.4 22.8 0.9 68.6 65.2 22.2 23.2 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 23.6 24.0 22.6 0.6 63.1 60.7 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.3 20.4 0.3 58.3 56.8 15.0 15.9 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 23.7 23.7 20.7 0.3 57.6 56.3 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 22.1 22.1 18.3 0.3 56.7 55.2 20.9 21.7 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 23.9 23.9 22.8 1.0 69.0 65.8 21.9 22.9 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.4 18.8 0.3 56.0 54.9 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 23.1 23.2 21.2 0.4 58.8 57.3 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 23.0 23.0 19.7 0.3 57.6 56.3 21.8 22.7 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 23.2 23.2 20.2 0.3 56.7 55.4 22.0 22.9 23.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 22.3 22.2 19.6 0.2 55.6 54.6 21.1 21.9 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 23.3 23.3 19.3 0.3 56.6 55.2 22.1 23.0 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.7 21.0 0.5 60.4 58.3 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 23.6 24.0 21.2 0.5 63.2 60.5 22.5 23.3 24.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 23.8 23.8 19.8 0.3 56.2 55.0 22.6 23.5 24.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 23.8 23.9 22.7 1.1 71.5 67.4 21.6 22.6 23.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.6 19.0 0.4 58.7 57.1 21.4 22.2 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 23.1 23.8 22.8 0.8 67.0 63.8 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.7 16.7 0.3 57.0 55.8 16.4 17.3 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 23.4 23.6 22.1 0.5 60.3 58.5 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 24.1 24.3 22.6 0.9 69.7 65.6 22.1 23.1 24.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 23.5 24.0 22.5 0.7 64.3 61.4 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 23.0 23.2 20.9 0.5 60.1 58.2 21.7 22.6 23.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 23.3 23.7 21.1 0.5 62.3 60.3 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.6 18.9 0.3 57.0 55.5 21.4 22.2 23.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 23.2 23.7 21.9 0.7 65.1 62.7 22.0 22.9 23.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.7 20.7 0.3 57.7 56.2 22.4 23.3 24.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.7 18.0 0.4 58.9 57.3 16.4 17.2 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 23.4 24.0 22.9 0.8 66.9 64.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------