***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 35.6 52.8 89.7 48.1 43.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 43.0 40.3 59.5 97.9 54.3 48.8 27.8 37.6 48.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 31.9 46.2 56.0 95.1 51.4 46.3 32.7 45.0 59.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 48.4 64.2 68.6 94.9 51.6 47.4 49.4 62.9 77.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 34.4 51.9 68.3 96.3 52.7 48.2 35.7 49.6 65.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 39.6 52.6 88.6 94.8 50.3 46.8 40.9 52.3 64.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 45.1 39.7 58.3 94.6 51.6 46.8 26.9 38.5 51.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 72.8 98.9 79.2 105.0 60.1 53.4 73.8 89.2 105.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 33.3 48.3 65.4 96.7 53.0 48.3 33.9 45.9 59.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 44.8 62.7 77.8 100.7 56.1 50.8 45.3 57.8 71.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 32.5 47.2 66.8 99.0 55.0 49.1 33.5 43.7 55.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 38.4 55.0 66.0 103.2 58.8 51.8 39.0 49.1 60.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 34.0 46.0 77.5 98.1 53.9 48.9 34.6 43.9 53.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 66.3 64.4 75.1 101.1 56.4 50.6 43.9 58.3 74.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 32.2 42.7 61.4 93.0 50.8 45.9 33.0 42.2 52.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 35.6 47.5 70.8 96.3 52.6 47.6 37.0 46.1 55.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 47.0 43.6 58.0 98.1 54.8 49.1 27.2 39.7 54.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 67.2 65.3 85.5 101.2 56.2 51.6 47.9 60.4 74.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 57.8 55.8 59.5 99.5 55.6 49.5 39.7 51.6 64.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 43.6 65.2 99.9 106.1 61.5 56.0 44.9 56.4 69.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 31.0 43.3 57.0 94.3 51.3 46.9 31.4 42.5 54.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 48.6 47.7 58.4 100.2 56.5 50.0 31.5 42.9 55.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 31.1 47.9 61.2 100.9 56.5 49.7 31.8 43.0 55.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 42.1 58.9 71.7 98.3 53.5 48.8 43.2 56.0 70.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 33.8 45.2 67.0 90.9 47.6 44.2 34.6 47.1 61.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 34.8 50.3 75.2 102.3 57.8 50.9 36.4 45.6 55.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 35.4 46.6 61.6 88.8 46.5 42.9 37.3 49.3 62.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 33.8 45.2 65.5 95.1 52.2 47.3 34.8 43.8 53.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 83.7 83.7 89.8 102.9 58.0 53.1 66.0 77.9 90.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 47.7 42.7 57.9 95.8 52.4 47.2 28.7 40.8 54.7 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------