***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-06.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 9999.0 2.7 8.1 48.9 30.6 24.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 2.4 4.1 8.9 62.4 37.6 29.2 3.3 6.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 2.5 3.6 8.7 53.4 33.5 26.7 3.5 6.5 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 5.0 6.0 9.7 50.9 29.5 24.6 6.7 11.0 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 80 20 0 100 2.7 3.3 9.3 49.9 29.5 25.2 3.8 6.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 5.9 6.6 10.4 53.0 30.6 26.9 7.1 10.9 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 2.8 4.4 8.6 58.9 36.1 27.5 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 9.9 12.5 12.3 60.6 35.5 31.3 11.6 18.4 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 3.1 3.7 8.5 47.4 29.4 25.1 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 3.8 4.4 11.3 54.6 31.0 28.2 4.7 8.7 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 3.1 3.9 9.6 55.0 33.3 27.7 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 4.8 7.0 10.5 60.3 38.3 31.2 5.8 10.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 4.9 6.2 10.5 56.6 33.2 29.0 6.2 9.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 4.6 6.2 12.2 63.7 36.1 31.0 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 2.1 2.8 9.0 50.9 30.0 23.7 3.2 5.7 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 3.9 4.8 9.7 54.3 31.2 26.4 5.1 8.2 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 2.4 4.9 9.2 67.6 41.7 30.9 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 3.3 3.5 12.7 57.4 30.6 29.2 4.0 8.4 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 3.1 4.8 9.3 63.2 37.9 29.8 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.8 5.7 14.7 64.4 34.4 33.0 5.5 9.3 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 2.2 2.8 8.1 47.2 29.3 24.0 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 2.6 5.2 10.5 75.5 45.4 34.3 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 4.1 6.4 9.8 62.8 38.9 30.7 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 3.1 3.6 11.0 55.2 29.7 27.2 4.3 8.1 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 2.5 2.6 8.8 45.5 24.5 22.3 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 3.9 6.4 11.9 66.8 40.8 33.1 4.9 8.3 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 2.3 2.8 8.5 46.8 27.5 23.1 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 2.8 3.5 9.3 52.4 30.9 24.5 3.8 6.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 5.1 5.9 13.5 61.2 32.4 30.9 6.0 11.5 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 2.0 3.2 8.8 58.9 36.1 28.0 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------