***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 15.8 16.4 110.3 65.9 53.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 16.4 15.9 19.8 121.8 70.3 58.3 5.8 9.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 15.2 18.4 17.1 109.9 65.9 54.6 6.9 11.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.3 17.9 21.6 111.7 66.0 53.8 5.3 10.3 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.7 16.8 20.9 109.9 65.4 54.1 5.3 10.3 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 5.6 13.4 27.6 104.8 62.8 52.5 5.4 9.3 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 16.6 16.2 19.8 121.6 70.1 57.7 4.8 8.8 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 22.8 26.6 21.8 111.8 66.0 55.6 12.5 18.9 26.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 5.4 13.9 19.7 106.8 64.6 53.3 5.0 9.1 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 8.0 18.1 22.4 109.5 65.3 54.3 7.8 12.5 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.6 13.6 20.0 111.9 66.3 55.4 4.0 7.9 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.9 13.2 18.3 111.9 66.6 55.9 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.5 12.1 22.9 108.8 65.1 55.2 4.3 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.1 21.3 23.1 112.8 66.9 54.8 6.2 12.1 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.4 8.9 20.0 108.8 65.6 52.1 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.2 16.3 21.9 112.1 66.3 55.6 6.0 10.2 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 16.4 16.3 19.4 122.5 70.6 58.2 5.1 9.1 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.3 20.1 24.4 109.0 64.9 53.6 7.9 13.5 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 18.6 17.5 19.3 119.8 69.6 57.4 6.0 10.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.3 20.5 27.7 110.7 65.0 54.6 7.8 13.5 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.6 13.6 17.1 106.4 64.6 52.9 5.2 9.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 14.8 19.6 19.7 121.5 70.3 56.6 7.1 11.7 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 18.1 17.1 19.4 116.8 68.6 56.1 6.9 10.9 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 8.3 20.0 21.2 108.9 65.2 53.6 8.1 13.5 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.2 13.2 20.9 108.2 64.5 53.5 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.9 11.1 19.7 98.5 60.8 51.2 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.8 16.9 19.6 109.7 65.2 53.7 5.5 10.4 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.8 12.3 21.3 112.9 66.8 53.5 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 13.5 25.6 25.6 111.3 65.7 54.1 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 17.6 16.7 18.9 118.2 69.0 57.2 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------