***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 11.6 11.7 98.4 63.8 50.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.3 12.6 13.9 107.2 66.4 52.6 4.8 8.1 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 6.3 16.7 13.2 113.6 68.2 52.1 5.9 10.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.2 20.2 15.7 102.6 64.9 49.9 8.4 13.9 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 8.7 21.0 16.2 113.8 68.4 51.1 8.5 13.4 19.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.5 12.1 21.1 96.2 60.9 47.7 4.2 8.2 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.0 12.1 13.5 100.6 64.5 52.3 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.8 30.0 18.3 123.7 70.9 52.9 11.4 18.1 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.9 17.7 15.9 118.9 69.8 51.4 5.4 9.8 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.5 22.7 18.6 122.2 70.5 52.6 8.3 13.6 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.8 16.3 15.9 120.5 70.3 50.9 5.7 9.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.3 18.0 14.9 119.3 70.1 50.5 5.2 9.8 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.0 13.8 17.6 104.0 64.9 48.1 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.2 18.1 16.9 114.9 68.4 51.3 7.0 11.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 6.2 14.9 14.0 95.9 62.8 46.5 5.6 10.3 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.1 13.7 16.2 106.5 65.9 48.4 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.2 11.0 13.6 101.6 65.1 51.4 3.9 7.1 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.8 19.2 20.3 119.5 69.5 53.1 6.3 11.1 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 6.2 16.8 13.9 113.5 68.1 52.5 5.7 10.1 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.2 18.1 23.5 120.5 69.6 55.6 7.0 11.2 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.5 14.9 13.2 112.0 68.0 51.0 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.5 12.8 13.2 105.0 65.8 51.2 4.2 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.3 13.1 14.3 119.6 69.8 51.6 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.6 17.4 17.0 118.8 69.5 51.9 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.6 15.1 15.4 98.8 63.7 51.5 5.3 9.9 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 6.1 17.0 16.9 112.8 68.0 49.5 6.1 10.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.9 14.4 14.0 94.5 62.4 50.7 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 5.7 14.1 14.7 98.5 63.5 47.0 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.8 25.3 21.2 118.7 69.2 53.5 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.3 14.1 13.5 107.6 66.4 52.7 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------