***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 11.8 14.9 16.1 5.2 98.4 98.1 9.0 10.0 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 11.5 15.0 15.4 5.0 98.8 98.5 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 13.2 16.5 15.6 4.8 98.5 98.2 10.4 11.5 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 8.1 9.8 11.5 3.5 92.7 92.2 5.1 6.2 7.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 9.8 12.5 13.2 4.3 97.4 97.1 7.0 8.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 8.3 9.8 9.4 3.4 94.2 93.7 5.9 6.7 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 11.3 14.4 15.4 5.0 98.5 98.2 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 3.7 6.2 9.6 3.8 97.3 96.6 1.1 2.0 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 10.3 13.7 13.5 4.7 99.3 99.0 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 10.2 12.6 10.9 4.0 97.9 97.4 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 9.7 12.1 12.1 4.0 98.1 97.7 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 8.2 10.2 10.7 3.8 96.9 96.4 6.0 6.8 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 9.2 10.7 10.1 2.9 94.0 93.5 7.0 7.8 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 10.8 12.9 12.0 3.5 97.1 96.5 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 11.1 13.1 13.0 3.6 96.1 95.4 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 10.9 12.7 11.0 3.3 95.1 94.6 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 11.4 14.1 15.0 4.9 98.8 98.5 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 7.9 9.6 9.8 3.4 95.8 95.1 5.7 6.5 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 11.2 14.4 15.4 5.0 99.1 98.8 8.8 9.6 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 5.1 6.7 8.0 3.3 95.3 94.5 3.0 3.7 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 10.4 13.5 14.7 4.6 98.7 98.4 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 10.5 13.1 14.9 4.7 98.9 98.5 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 10.8 14.0 15.1 5.0 99.3 99.1 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 10.2 12.3 12.2 3.8 97.4 96.8 8.2 8.9 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 11.2 14.0 15.2 5.0 97.8 97.3 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 9.1 10.3 9.5 3.1 92.9 92.3 6.9 7.7 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 12.4 16.5 15.7 5.1 97.9 97.5 8.5 9.9 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 9.0 10.3 11.7 3.3 93.0 92.4 6.7 7.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 8.1 10.4 8.9 3.3 96.0 95.1 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 11.7 15.2 15.8 5.1 98.7 98.5 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------