***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 11.9 13.4 13.3 2.5 89.6 82.5 9.3 10.3 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 12.2 13.8 13.0 2.5 90.0 83.3 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 13.7 15.2 13.2 2.4 89.6 83.5 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 8.7 9.9 10.1 2.0 84.9 78.5 6.1 7.2 8.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 10.1 11.1 10.8 2.1 86.1 80.4 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 8.8 9.6 7.9 1.8 82.9 77.8 6.8 7.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 12.1 13.6 13.1 2.5 90.0 83.6 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 4.0 4.9 8.1 1.9 84.9 80.1 1.7 2.6 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 11.1 12.3 11.1 2.3 89.3 83.6 8.7 9.7 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 10.8 11.8 9.2 2.1 86.6 81.6 8.7 9.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 10.6 11.6 10.1 2.1 87.1 81.7 8.4 9.3 10.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 8.7 9.5 9.0 1.9 85.2 80.1 6.8 7.6 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 10.0 10.7 8.8 1.8 83.1 78.3 8.1 8.9 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 11.4 12.5 10.7 2.1 86.9 81.1 9.4 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 11.8 12.9 11.5 2.1 87.6 80.7 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 11.3 12.3 9.5 1.9 84.5 79.3 8.9 10.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 12.2 13.5 12.8 2.5 89.3 82.7 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 9.1 9.8 8.4 1.9 84.3 80.1 7.1 8.0 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 11.9 13.4 13.1 2.6 90.9 84.4 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 5.5 6.2 6.4 1.8 82.1 77.9 3.6 4.5 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 11.0 12.2 12.4 2.3 88.7 82.5 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 11.3 12.7 12.8 2.4 89.8 83.1 9.1 10.0 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 11.5 13.1 13.1 2.7 92.3 86.2 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 11.1 12.0 10.6 2.1 86.7 81.9 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 11.3 12.7 12.1 2.4 87.9 81.2 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 9.8 10.5 8.1 1.8 82.3 77.6 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 12.3 13.8 12.7 2.4 88.3 81.5 9.5 10.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 9.8 10.6 10.4 1.9 84.1 77.9 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 8.5 9.4 7.7 1.9 84.3 80.0 6.0 7.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 12.1 13.7 13.3 2.6 90.4 83.8 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------