***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 13.4 13.5 14.0 1.2 72.5 67.1 11.2 12.2 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.4 13.7 1.2 72.5 66.3 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 14.9 15.1 13.9 1.1 72.2 66.8 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 9.9 10.0 11.1 1.0 70.6 66.3 7.4 8.6 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 11.9 11.9 11.1 0.9 69.7 65.7 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 10.5 10.5 9.0 0.9 70.1 65.8 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 13.2 13.5 13.8 1.3 73.4 67.2 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 5.5 5.3 8.6 0.7 66.0 63.4 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.7 11.4 0.9 69.9 65.4 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 12.5 12.4 9.6 0.8 67.1 63.7 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 12.4 12.4 10.4 0.9 69.1 65.8 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 10.5 10.5 9.4 0.8 68.0 64.9 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 11.8 11.7 9.1 0.8 67.3 63.8 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 13.2 13.2 11.2 0.9 68.3 63.8 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 13.6 13.7 12.3 1.1 72.7 68.1 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 12.8 12.8 10.0 0.9 68.9 65.4 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 13.5 13.7 13.5 1.2 71.9 65.6 11.4 12.4 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.4 11.0 8.8 0.7 65.8 62.6 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 13.2 13.4 13.7 1.2 73.2 66.9 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.6 7.0 6.5 0.6 63.0 60.8 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 12.7 12.7 12.9 1.0 70.8 65.8 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 12.6 12.8 13.3 1.2 72.3 65.9 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 12.7 13.1 13.5 1.3 74.3 67.9 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 12.6 12.6 11.0 0.8 68.2 64.0 10.7 11.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 13.2 13.2 12.4 1.1 71.2 66.4 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 11.3 11.3 8.9 0.9 69.6 65.1 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 13.4 13.4 13.3 1.2 72.0 66.8 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 11.6 11.6 11.3 1.0 70.2 66.2 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 8.8 9.4 8.1 0.7 65.0 62.2 7.5 8.5 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 13.4 13.7 13.9 1.3 73.1 67.1 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------