***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 12.1 13.7 14.2 2.7 97.5 94.5 10.4 11.0 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 12.1 13.8 13.9 2.6 97.9 94.7 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 13.8 15.5 14.1 2.6 97.8 94.9 12.1 12.7 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 8.8 10.2 10.8 2.0 94.3 90.6 6.9 7.6 8.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 10.3 11.6 11.4 2.2 96.6 93.6 9.0 9.5 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 9.2 10.1 8.7 1.9 94.0 91.0 7.7 8.2 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 11.9 13.5 13.9 2.7 97.8 94.9 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 4.2 5.5 8.7 2.0 95.8 92.2 2.7 3.3 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 11.1 12.6 11.7 2.4 98.1 95.6 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 11.0 12.2 9.8 2.1 96.6 93.3 9.7 10.2 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 10.8 11.9 10.6 2.1 96.8 94.0 9.5 9.9 10.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 9.0 10.0 9.5 2.0 95.8 92.6 7.7 8.2 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 10.3 11.1 9.1 1.7 92.9 89.7 9.0 9.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 11.7 12.9 11.2 2.0 95.7 91.8 10.4 10.9 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 12.0 13.2 12.1 2.0 96.1 92.7 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 11.6 12.6 9.9 1.8 94.5 91.3 10.0 10.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 12.2 13.8 13.6 2.6 97.7 94.3 10.8 11.3 11.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 9.3 10.5 8.9 1.9 95.2 91.5 7.9 8.4 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 11.9 13.6 13.9 2.7 98.2 95.2 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 5.8 6.7 6.8 1.8 94.2 90.0 4.4 4.9 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 11.1 12.5 13.1 2.4 97.6 94.5 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 11.3 12.8 13.5 2.5 97.7 93.9 9.9 10.5 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 11.6 13.2 13.7 2.7 98.6 95.9 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 11.2 12.3 11.1 2.1 96.4 93.0 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 11.6 13.0 12.9 2.6 96.8 93.7 10.1 10.7 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 10.1 11.0 8.7 1.8 93.3 90.4 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 12.3 13.9 13.6 2.6 97.0 94.0 10.5 11.2 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 9.9 10.8 11.0 1.9 94.0 90.3 8.7 9.1 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 8.5 9.8 8.1 1.8 95.0 91.1 6.9 7.5 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 12.1 13.7 14.1 2.7 97.9 95.0 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------