***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 24.7 27.3 25.6 5.3 95.0 94.2 21.1 22.4 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 24.5 27.7 25.8 5.6 96.2 95.5 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 24.6 26.9 25.7 5.2 94.1 93.4 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 17.0 18.6 21.3 4.4 90.3 89.4 13.5 14.7 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 24.4 26.0 23.2 4.6 91.1 90.1 20.9 22.2 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 22.8 23.8 20.1 3.7 85.7 84.4 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 24.0 27.1 25.8 5.7 96.7 96.0 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 12.1 13.3 20.2 3.6 85.5 84.1 8.1 9.7 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 23.9 25.9 24.4 4.9 92.6 91.6 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 23.7 24.9 21.9 4.2 88.0 86.8 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 24.0 25.4 23.5 4.5 89.9 88.8 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 23.1 24.5 21.5 4.0 88.5 86.9 19.5 20.8 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 23.9 25.2 22.3 3.9 87.9 86.1 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 24.2 25.8 23.7 4.4 90.0 88.9 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 23.8 25.7 24.2 4.9 93.6 92.9 20.7 21.9 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 24.4 25.8 22.4 4.1 88.5 87.3 20.8 22.2 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 23.7 27.1 25.6 5.7 97.0 96.2 20.0 21.4 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 23.2 24.2 20.7 3.7 85.0 83.5 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 24.1 27.2 25.9 5.6 96.3 95.6 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 18.3 18.9 17.9 2.9 80.6 79.1 14.6 16.1 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 24.2 26.2 25.3 5.0 92.7 91.8 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 24.4 27.6 25.3 5.4 96.2 95.3 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 24.4 27.6 26.2 6.0 96.7 96.0 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 23.8 25.2 23.6 4.4 89.6 88.4 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 24.0 26.0 24.2 5.1 93.7 92.8 20.8 21.9 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 23.1 24.7 20.5 4.1 89.4 87.5 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 23.9 26.3 25.1 5.3 95.2 94.4 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 23.9 25.2 22.1 4.2 89.5 88.6 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 18.3 19.1 19.7 3.3 83.1 81.5 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 24.3 27.2 25.8 5.5 96.1 95.3 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------