***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 25.1 26.7 23.2 3.1 86.3 79.3 21.0 22.7 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 25.0 26.8 23.4 3.3 87.8 81.2 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 24.9 26.3 23.2 2.9 84.3 77.3 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 17.2 18.1 19.6 2.2 79.3 72.2 14.3 15.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 24.7 25.6 20.8 2.3 79.1 72.3 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 22.8 23.2 17.8 1.7 72.1 66.6 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 24.5 26.3 23.3 3.4 88.3 81.9 20.7 22.2 23.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 12.1 12.8 18.4 2.1 75.6 69.4 9.1 10.5 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 24.1 25.1 21.6 2.6 81.0 74.0 20.7 22.2 23.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 23.8 24.5 19.7 2.3 77.9 71.4 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 23.9 24.8 20.7 2.3 78.0 71.4 20.9 22.3 23.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 23.0 23.8 19.5 2.2 77.2 70.5 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 24.0 24.7 19.7 2.1 76.4 70.1 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 24.6 25.5 21.5 2.7 80.7 74.5 21.2 22.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 24.5 25.6 21.5 2.3 81.8 73.8 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 24.7 25.5 20.0 2.2 77.2 70.8 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 24.1 26.0 23.2 3.4 88.3 81.9 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 23.3 24.0 19.0 2.4 77.3 71.2 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 24.5 26.3 23.5 3.4 87.9 81.1 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 18.4 18.9 16.5 2.1 75.2 69.4 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 24.4 25.5 22.5 2.6 81.2 74.2 21.0 22.5 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 24.8 26.5 23.0 3.3 87.2 80.7 21.0 22.5 24.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 24.9 26.7 23.5 3.5 88.2 81.0 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 24.0 24.9 21.3 2.6 80.0 73.7 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 24.5 25.6 21.5 2.7 83.8 76.7 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 23.4 24.4 18.6 2.2 78.8 71.7 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 24.4 25.8 22.5 3.0 86.3 79.5 20.8 22.3 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 24.2 25.1 20.1 2.1 77.7 70.6 21.5 22.8 24.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 18.3 19.0 18.1 2.3 76.2 70.5 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 24.7 26.4 23.4 3.3 87.4 80.8 20.9 22.4 23.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------