***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 25.6 26.8 23.3 2.3 78.9 71.2 21.8 23.5 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 26.2 27.3 23.4 2.5 80.5 72.7 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 26.0 27.1 23.6 2.4 78.7 71.2 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 18.3 19.0 20.6 1.8 74.1 66.6 14.9 16.6 18.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 26.0 26.6 21.3 1.9 73.5 66.4 22.4 24.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 23.0 24.2 18.5 1.3 67.2 61.3 21.1 22.6 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 25.6 26.8 23.3 2.4 79.9 72.2 22.0 23.6 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.6 13.9 19.2 1.6 70.0 63.6 10.5 12.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 25.5 26.2 21.8 2.1 75.3 68.0 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 25.1 25.6 20.3 1.9 72.5 65.8 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 24.4 26.1 20.8 1.8 72.3 65.4 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 23.3 24.7 20.2 1.7 71.3 64.5 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 25.5 25.8 19.5 1.6 70.2 63.7 22.4 23.9 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 25.8 26.4 21.5 2.1 74.4 68.2 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 25.9 26.8 21.5 1.9 77.5 69.3 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 26.0 26.4 20.3 1.7 71.1 64.4 22.7 24.3 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 25.4 26.5 23.2 2.5 79.9 72.0 21.7 23.3 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 24.7 25.1 19.8 1.9 71.8 65.7 21.3 23.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 25.6 26.8 23.6 2.6 81.0 73.2 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 18.6 19.9 16.9 1.5 68.5 63.0 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 25.6 26.4 22.7 2.1 75.7 68.4 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 25.9 26.9 23.0 2.4 78.6 71.1 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 26.0 27.3 23.7 2.7 81.2 73.3 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 25.1 25.8 21.6 2.1 74.8 68.3 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 25.6 26.6 21.5 2.1 77.3 69.3 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 23.6 25.3 19.5 1.8 73.9 66.1 21.7 23.2 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 25.6 26.6 22.5 2.3 78.6 70.8 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 25.7 26.3 20.7 1.7 73.0 65.8 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 19.7 19.9 18.7 1.7 69.9 64.4 16.3 18.0 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 25.9 27.0 23.5 2.5 80.2 72.5 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------