***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 25.4 25.9 24.1 1.9 75.0 67.9 22.4 23.8 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 25.6 26.2 24.0 2.0 76.5 68.1 23.0 24.2 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 25.6 26.1 24.3 1.8 74.1 67.3 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 18.3 18.6 21.7 1.7 72.6 67.0 15.3 16.7 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 25.7 26.0 22.2 1.7 71.7 66.4 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 23.0 23.8 19.6 1.3 67.3 62.9 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 25.2 25.7 23.9 1.9 75.4 67.6 22.6 23.8 24.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 13.8 13.8 20.1 1.4 68.0 63.7 10.8 12.2 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 25.1 25.5 22.6 1.8 72.6 66.9 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 25.0 25.1 21.1 1.6 70.3 65.4 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 25.3 25.6 21.9 1.7 71.6 66.4 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 24.1 24.2 21.2 1.5 69.6 64.9 21.4 22.7 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 25.2 25.3 20.5 1.5 68.6 64.2 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 25.6 25.5 22.0 1.4 68.4 63.2 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 25.9 26.4 22.7 1.9 75.6 69.5 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 25.9 26.1 21.3 1.6 70.5 65.7 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 25.0 25.5 23.8 1.9 75.5 67.2 22.4 23.6 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 24.5 24.5 20.5 1.4 67.9 63.4 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 25.1 25.8 24.2 2.1 77.0 68.5 22.5 23.7 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 18.9 19.6 17.6 1.1 64.1 60.7 16.9 18.4 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 25.4 25.6 23.5 1.7 72.1 66.2 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 25.5 25.9 23.5 1.7 73.7 65.7 22.9 24.1 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 25.7 26.3 24.2 2.1 76.9 68.6 23.0 24.2 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 24.9 25.1 22.1 1.5 69.9 64.6 22.3 23.6 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 25.5 25.9 22.3 1.8 74.3 67.7 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 24.5 24.8 20.5 1.7 72.0 66.3 21.9 23.2 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 25.2 25.7 23.2 1.9 75.0 67.9 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 25.9 26.1 21.9 1.6 72.0 66.8 23.0 24.4 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.8 19.6 19.4 1.2 65.7 61.8 17.0 18.3 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 25.4 26.1 24.1 2.0 76.1 68.2 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------