***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 24.8 27.2 24.0 3.2 95.9 90.8 22.0 23.1 24.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 24.9 27.4 24.2 3.4 96.6 91.6 22.2 23.2 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 24.9 27.0 24.2 3.1 95.3 90.0 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 17.3 18.7 20.8 2.5 92.2 87.1 15.0 15.9 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 24.8 26.4 21.9 2.6 92.6 87.4 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 23.1 23.9 19.0 2.0 87.2 82.7 20.9 21.7 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 24.5 26.9 24.1 3.3 96.6 91.7 21.9 22.9 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 12.5 13.6 19.5 2.2 88.4 83.2 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 24.3 26.1 22.6 2.8 94.0 88.7 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 24.0 25.3 20.8 2.5 90.9 85.6 21.8 22.7 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 24.2 25.6 21.7 2.6 91.9 86.9 22.0 22.9 23.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 23.2 24.3 20.6 2.4 90.2 85.2 21.1 21.9 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 24.3 25.3 20.5 2.3 89.4 84.6 22.1 23.0 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 24.5 26.1 22.2 2.6 92.1 86.1 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 24.7 26.5 22.5 2.8 94.9 90.1 22.5 23.3 24.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 24.9 26.1 21.0 2.4 90.5 85.7 22.6 23.5 24.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 24.2 26.7 23.9 3.4 96.7 91.4 21.6 22.6 23.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 23.5 24.6 20.0 2.3 89.0 83.4 21.4 22.2 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 24.4 26.9 24.3 3.4 96.9 91.9 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 18.6 19.4 17.2 1.9 84.8 79.8 16.4 17.3 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 24.6 26.4 23.5 2.8 93.9 88.5 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 24.7 27.1 23.7 3.2 96.0 90.1 22.1 23.1 24.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 24.8 27.4 24.4 3.6 97.3 92.5 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 24.0 25.5 22.2 2.7 92.2 86.4 21.7 22.6 23.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 24.5 26.6 22.4 2.9 94.9 89.7 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 23.6 24.8 19.8 2.5 91.5 87.0 21.4 22.2 23.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 24.4 26.5 23.3 3.1 95.9 90.9 22.0 22.9 23.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 24.6 25.9 21.2 2.4 91.5 86.4 22.4 23.3 24.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 18.5 19.6 19.0 2.1 87.0 81.6 16.4 17.2 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 24.7 27.2 24.2 3.3 96.5 91.6 22.0 23.0 24.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------