***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.0 3.8 10.3 57.5 39.0 33.7 3.1 5.3 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.5 5.2 11.3 67.0 44.9 38.1 3.3 6.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.5 6.1 12.4 74.2 48.5 39.8 3.5 6.5 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.7 10.2 15.7 72.7 47.4 39.4 6.7 11.0 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.1 6.8 14.0 77.3 50.7 43.2 3.8 6.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.6 19.0 91.1 56.3 49.2 7.1 10.9 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.0 6.0 11.5 66.3 45.4 39.7 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 22.4 26.4 23.7 109.6 64.9 55.1 11.6 18.4 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.2 7.2 13.1 72.9 47.8 40.3 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.4 20.9 96.7 59.1 49.3 4.7 8.7 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.2 8.0 15.4 82.8 54.0 44.6 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.6 18.8 100.4 61.2 52.2 5.8 10.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.8 13.3 19.2 100.5 62.1 53.8 6.2 9.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.0 13.4 20.1 96.0 59.5 49.7 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.8 15.2 72.7 50.4 40.5 3.2 5.7 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.7 16.4 89.7 56.9 48.8 5.1 8.2 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.6 7.1 12.9 75.7 50.5 44.7 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.8 14.5 24.1 110.6 65.0 54.1 4.0 8.4 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.3 6.9 12.0 71.6 47.4 40.0 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.3 15.9 27.0 122.2 70.0 60.5 5.5 9.3 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.3 4.7 11.4 65.9 43.5 37.0 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.6 6.3 13.0 76.2 51.2 44.0 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.7 9.9 14.0 81.4 52.9 45.0 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.6 18.3 95.3 58.5 48.1 4.3 8.1 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.7 5.5 12.5 64.2 43.6 36.2 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.4 14.3 24.6 123.4 69.7 61.0 4.9 8.3 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.5 4.9 11.9 62.1 41.9 35.2 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.9 6.6 16.6 79.0 51.8 42.6 3.8 6.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.0 20.3 25.4 117.4 68.0 57.8 6.0 11.5 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.1 4.8 11.7 69.4 46.4 38.9 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------