***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.1 6.5 14.0 79.3 51.6 41.0 2.9 6.1 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.1 13.4 80.3 52.8 41.7 2.9 5.6 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.8 7.5 14.6 83.1 53.5 43.4 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 6.5 17.8 21.2 106.4 64.4 51.2 6.6 11.8 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.7 11.5 18.6 97.3 60.2 49.3 4.2 8.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 5.5 13.1 22.5 99.1 59.5 50.9 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.9 6.7 12.1 75.6 50.3 39.4 3.7 6.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 20.0 21.6 21.2 102.5 62.1 51.9 9.3 15.6 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.0 10.9 18.5 96.3 59.3 49.3 4.7 8.3 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.7 12.9 20.6 97.1 59.4 50.0 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.5 11.0 19.6 98.0 59.7 49.4 5.4 8.6 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.8 11.5 19.9 103.6 62.5 51.9 4.4 8.0 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.7 8.3 21.4 97.2 60.0 49.6 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.1 10.2 19.1 83.8 53.8 44.2 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.3 14.0 20.9 114.4 67.7 51.9 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.8 10.1 19.7 95.9 59.6 49.1 4.9 7.9 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.1 7.6 12.8 75.0 50.3 39.1 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.6 12.8 22.2 94.9 58.6 49.9 5.2 9.7 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 5.2 10.7 13.6 80.4 52.6 41.7 5.2 9.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 6.4 12.7 23.4 98.1 59.4 50.4 6.4 10.2 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.4 10.6 16.9 90.2 57.0 46.5 4.6 8.6 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.9 7.0 13.1 74.4 49.4 39.4 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.0 7.8 14.3 82.2 53.0 42.1 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.4 13.0 19.3 91.0 56.6 47.1 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 5.0 9.0 15.9 74.6 48.9 40.8 4.9 9.3 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.1 18.8 93.2 57.5 49.0 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.5 7.7 13.9 71.6 46.8 38.4 4.5 8.6 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.2 14.7 21.5 112.6 66.7 52.0 5.2 9.2 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.8 16.3 22.4 92.1 56.6 48.2 8.4 13.9 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.4 6.8 13.0 78.5 51.4 40.8 2.9 6.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------