***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 6.3 12.0 13.1 76.1 49.3 39.1 7.2 12.3 19.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 5.3 9.2 12.5 75.9 48.7 37.6 5.8 9.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 6.7 10.9 12.0 69.4 46.7 38.7 6.9 11.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 5.7 10.0 14.7 74.3 48.9 39.6 5.3 10.3 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.3 8.5 12.7 66.6 44.6 38.6 5.3 10.3 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.8 19.3 87.4 54.9 47.4 5.4 9.3 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 4.2 7.5 11.9 71.0 45.3 35.6 4.8 8.8 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.8 19.2 16.5 79.2 50.9 44.0 12.5 18.9 26.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.8 7.2 12.4 62.8 42.5 37.7 5.0 9.1 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.6 11.1 15.3 68.9 45.4 39.8 7.8 12.5 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.5 7.4 12.2 70.1 48.0 41.3 4.0 7.9 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.9 8.3 14.2 76.7 50.2 42.9 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.1 7.8 16.5 77.1 50.3 44.0 4.3 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.9 11.2 16.3 71.5 47.5 41.1 6.2 12.1 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.9 5.6 13.3 73.3 51.4 39.2 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 6.3 10.2 14.0 73.9 49.7 42.8 6.0 10.2 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.8 8.4 12.2 73.0 47.5 38.5 5.1 9.1 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.1 12.8 18.2 75.6 48.4 41.8 7.9 13.5 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 5.5 10.2 12.6 76.1 49.6 38.3 6.0 10.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.3 15.5 20.7 88.4 54.7 47.6 7.8 13.5 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.9 7.6 11.8 63.9 44.5 38.2 5.2 9.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 7.0 12.6 13.9 81.7 53.0 43.2 7.1 11.7 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 6.0 10.5 12.4 72.7 48.6 38.3 6.9 10.9 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 8.0 12.3 15.0 70.2 46.6 40.4 8.1 13.5 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.9 7.9 15.1 75.1 48.4 38.6 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.7 7.8 14.6 74.4 49.1 41.8 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 4.9 10.5 15.0 79.6 50.4 39.5 5.5 10.4 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.9 7.5 14.1 73.6 50.0 40.2 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.6 19.6 19.2 81.3 51.2 44.3 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 5.7 10.0 12.4 75.5 48.7 37.6 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------