***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 5.8 12.3 15.8 85.6 56.3 45.9 5.9 10.4 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.1 9.7 14.6 85.8 56.7 45.6 4.8 8.1 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.7 11.7 14.8 83.1 55.1 44.3 5.9 10.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.7 14.3 16.1 76.2 51.2 43.3 8.4 13.9 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 8.7 14.1 15.6 77.3 51.8 43.9 8.5 13.4 19.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.5 9.1 18.5 82.6 52.4 44.9 4.2 8.2 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.5 9.3 14.5 84.2 56.2 45.4 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.4 18.3 17.0 78.0 50.0 43.1 11.4 18.1 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.9 10.4 15.6 76.5 51.7 43.8 5.4 9.8 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.6 13.3 17.3 75.0 49.2 42.4 8.3 13.6 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.7 9.0 13.4 70.1 48.1 40.3 5.7 9.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.8 10.0 14.4 76.8 50.7 42.7 5.2 9.8 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.4 8.6 15.5 74.6 49.9 41.6 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.3 12.7 19.2 83.6 54.3 46.4 7.0 11.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 6.1 11.0 14.7 75.4 52.7 43.4 5.6 10.3 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 5.0 8.1 14.1 71.3 48.4 39.9 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.2 8.4 14.1 82.3 55.7 45.2 3.9 7.1 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.2 11.9 19.8 82.2 52.4 46.0 6.3 11.1 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 6.1 11.8 14.5 84.6 56.0 45.2 5.7 10.1 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.7 12.1 19.9 84.3 53.0 46.1 7.0 11.2 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.2 9.9 15.3 80.6 54.2 45.0 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.4 8.8 13.8 78.6 53.7 44.1 4.2 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.1 8.5 14.2 81.7 54.6 44.5 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.8 10.8 17.6 82.4 53.9 46.1 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 13.3 11.2 17.4 82.0 53.9 45.8 5.3 9.9 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.1 11.4 15.1 80.9 53.2 43.1 6.1 10.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.7 11.5 16.8 83.7 55.1 45.9 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.5 9.6 15.1 73.2 50.2 41.9 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.2 17.6 20.2 85.4 54.2 47.7 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.9 10.7 14.9 86.9 57.1 45.7 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------