***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 33.4 35.2 53.2 74.7 34.2 34.4 34.5 45.6 58.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 25.7 30.2 51.8 77.3 36.9 35.4 27.8 37.6 48.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 31.6 35.2 53.8 77.6 36.4 36.3 32.7 45.0 59.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 47.6 54.8 67.7 82.1 39.9 39.4 49.4 62.9 77.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 35.0 39.6 60.8 79.7 37.9 37.3 35.7 49.6 65.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 40.5 49.5 79.3 90.0 45.9 44.0 40.9 52.3 64.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 25.0 27.6 49.9 74.3 34.0 33.6 26.9 38.5 51.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 97.0 86.5 78.3 92.3 47.5 45.6 73.8 89.2 105.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 32.4 35.2 59.6 77.0 35.2 35.2 33.9 45.9 59.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 43.6 50.5 74.1 84.1 40.1 39.5 45.3 57.8 71.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 31.7 36.4 60.6 80.9 38.3 37.7 33.5 43.7 55.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 54.2 46.7 67.4 89.5 45.8 44.2 39.0 49.1 60.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 33.8 40.9 72.6 87.1 44.6 42.7 34.6 43.9 53.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 41.1 50.0 74.8 83.5 40.5 39.5 43.9 58.3 74.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 30.9 38.3 64.0 83.5 42.8 40.1 33.0 42.2 52.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 35.4 41.2 64.2 82.8 40.8 39.9 37.0 46.1 55.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 25.1 29.4 51.9 76.5 36.1 35.1 27.2 39.7 54.5 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 47.2 57.4 84.2 90.3 45.8 44.0 47.9 60.4 74.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 37.1 42.8 52.8 78.2 37.2 35.8 39.7 51.6 64.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 62.1 58.3 91.0 97.9 52.6 49.6 44.9 56.4 69.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 30.8 32.7 55.4 75.3 34.8 34.8 31.4 42.5 54.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 28.5 33.7 53.8 77.7 36.2 35.5 31.5 42.9 55.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 29.5 34.9 55.0 79.6 38.1 36.9 31.8 43.0 55.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 41.0 49.4 70.2 84.4 41.3 39.9 43.2 56.0 70.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 32.8 34.9 60.8 74.1 33.4 33.6 34.6 47.1 61.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 49.8 45.4 73.1 93.1 49.7 47.7 36.4 45.6 55.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 35.1 37.3 57.6 74.3 33.3 33.3 37.3 49.3 62.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 32.5 39.7 67.2 84.2 42.4 40.9 34.8 43.8 53.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 65.2 76.9 87.2 93.6 48.8 46.4 66.0 77.9 90.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 27.4 31.6 52.0 77.6 37.1 36.0 28.7 40.8 54.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------