***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 8.5 8.4 9.3 -1.7 23.3 26.2 9.1 10.1 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 8.1 7.8 8.8 -1.9 19.1 22.3 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 10.0 9.8 9.1 -1.9 19.3 22.1 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 6.7 5.4 7.4 -0.9 34.2 36.5 5.3 6.3 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 6.8 6.7 7.8 -1.4 26.4 29.3 7.1 8.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 7.1 6.6 6.0 -0.3 44.7 46.2 6.0 6.9 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 8.4 8.1 8.9 -1.8 20.3 23.7 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 0.9 0.8 5.0 -1.3 25.7 28.3 1.2 2.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 7.6 7.5 7.7 -1.4 24.2 27.3 8.0 8.9 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 7.8 7.7 6.0 -1.4 23.7 26.7 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.6 7.5 7.4 -1.0 30.2 32.9 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.0 6.0 6.2 -1.1 28.5 31.0 6.2 7.0 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.2 6.6 -0.8 33.5 35.9 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 8.3 8.2 7.0 -1.8 17.9 20.7 8.9 9.7 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.2 9.5 9.1 -0.4 41.7 43.8 9.0 9.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.8 8.6 7.1 -0.8 33.9 36.1 8.5 9.5 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 8.9 8.6 8.7 -1.8 20.2 23.8 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 5.6 5.5 5.2 -1.6 21.8 24.6 6.0 6.7 7.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 8.3 8.2 8.8 -1.9 19.0 22.0 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 2.6 2.6 3.6 -1.5 23.5 25.9 3.1 3.9 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 7.5 7.3 8.7 -1.6 22.1 25.1 8.0 9.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 8.1 7.8 8.7 -1.8 18.9 22.3 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 8.1 8.0 8.7 -1.8 19.4 22.1 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 7.9 7.7 7.1 -1.7 19.2 22.1 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 8.3 8.2 8.7 -1.6 26.0 29.1 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.3 5.9 -0.7 36.3 38.1 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 8.2 8.0 9.0 -1.8 23.7 26.7 8.8 10.2 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.1 7.2 8.0 -0.6 38.8 40.7 6.9 7.8 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 4.8 4.7 4.4 -1.6 20.6 23.5 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 8.2 8.0 9.0 -1.9 19.7 22.8 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------