***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 13.1 12.6 12.6 0.6 62.1 57.3 10.9 11.9 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 10.7 12.5 12.4 0.6 60.7 56.2 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 12.1 14.2 12.6 0.5 60.9 56.2 12.4 13.5 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 6.9 9.5 10.0 0.6 62.8 57.0 7.3 8.6 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 9.4 11.2 10.1 0.6 63.2 57.6 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.1 10.2 8.3 0.9 70.2 62.8 8.4 9.2 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 10.7 12.5 12.4 0.5 60.1 55.9 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 5.3 5.2 8.0 0.8 66.7 61.0 3.1 4.1 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 12.4 12.0 10.3 0.6 63.5 58.0 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 12.1 11.9 8.9 0.7 65.0 59.6 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.8 9.5 0.7 65.4 59.6 10.2 11.1 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.9 8.7 0.7 66.4 60.5 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 11.4 11.2 8.3 0.7 64.4 59.1 9.7 10.6 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 10.7 12.3 10.2 0.4 59.8 55.7 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 11.0 12.6 11.2 0.6 63.4 57.1 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.4 12.4 9.0 0.7 64.8 59.1 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 10.9 12.7 12.2 0.5 59.2 55.3 11.2 12.2 13.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 10.5 10.1 8.1 0.6 63.7 59.1 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 10.8 12.6 12.4 0.5 60.7 56.2 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 6.5 6.3 6.1 0.7 64.8 60.6 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 10.1 12.0 11.7 0.6 62.2 57.1 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 10.2 11.7 11.9 0.4 57.6 54.1 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 10.3 12.0 12.1 0.5 60.2 56.0 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 10.1 11.8 10.0 0.5 61.1 56.7 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 12.8 12.4 11.3 0.7 62.4 57.3 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 11.1 11.2 8.2 0.9 70.4 62.4 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 13.6 13.0 12.0 0.7 62.5 57.7 10.8 12.1 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 9.0 10.6 10.3 0.6 63.3 57.2 9.3 10.0 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 9.5 9.1 7.4 0.6 63.5 59.3 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 10.7 12.7 12.5 0.5 60.4 56.0 11.0 12.1 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------