***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.9 11.5 -0.3 42.0 44.7 10.6 11.2 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 10.5 10.8 11.2 -0.4 38.9 42.4 10.6 11.2 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 12.1 12.5 11.5 -0.3 40.1 43.1 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.8 9.2 0.0 51.2 50.8 7.1 7.8 8.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.5 9.4 -0.1 46.0 47.3 9.1 9.6 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.8 7.5 0.4 63.1 59.2 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 10.5 10.8 11.2 -0.4 38.8 42.5 10.6 11.2 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.4 7.0 0.0 48.4 48.5 2.8 3.4 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.3 9.5 -0.1 45.3 46.7 9.9 10.4 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.8 10.2 7.9 -0.1 45.6 46.8 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.1 8.8 0.0 50.1 49.9 9.6 10.1 10.5 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.3 7.9 0.0 49.4 49.3 7.9 8.3 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.6 7.8 0.0 51.8 51.5 9.1 9.6 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 10.4 10.7 9.2 -0.3 39.1 42.5 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.4 10.5 0.2 56.1 53.9 10.7 11.3 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.8 8.4 0.1 52.3 51.6 10.2 10.7 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 10.8 11.1 11.0 -0.3 39.4 42.8 10.9 11.5 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 7.9 8.4 7.2 -0.2 42.9 45.1 8.0 8.6 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.9 11.2 -0.3 39.3 42.6 10.6 11.2 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.5 4.9 5.3 -0.1 45.6 46.9 4.5 5.0 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 9.8 10.2 10.8 -0.2 43.1 45.4 9.9 10.4 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 10.0 10.3 10.9 -0.4 37.8 41.4 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.5 11.0 -0.3 40.0 42.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 9.9 10.2 9.1 -0.3 40.7 43.5 10.0 10.5 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.6 10.4 -0.2 42.9 45.6 10.2 10.8 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.6 7.5 0.3 60.6 57.6 8.7 9.3 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.0 11.0 -0.3 41.8 44.8 10.7 11.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.4 9.6 0.1 54.9 53.0 8.8 9.3 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.9 7.4 6.4 -0.2 41.1 43.9 7.0 7.7 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 10.6 10.9 11.3 -0.4 38.8 42.4 10.7 11.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------