***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 20.7 20.5 19.0 -1.8 26.3 30.0 21.1 22.4 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 20.4 19.9 18.6 -2.2 22.5 27.0 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 20.6 20.2 18.7 -2.3 22.5 26.6 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 15.3 13.7 16.3 -1.2 34.4 36.6 13.6 14.8 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 20.6 20.5 17.2 -1.9 26.7 30.1 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 21.2 19.4 15.8 -1.2 35.1 37.1 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 20.2 19.8 18.6 -2.1 23.3 27.9 20.6 21.9 23.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.9 7.7 15.2 -2.1 26.2 29.6 8.3 9.7 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 20.1 19.9 18.0 -2.1 24.8 28.5 20.6 21.8 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 20.0 19.7 16.0 -2.3 23.8 27.6 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 20.2 20.0 17.6 -2.0 26.6 30.1 20.6 21.9 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 21.5 19.2 16.4 -1.7 29.3 32.3 19.6 20.9 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 20.0 19.9 17.3 -1.8 28.2 31.1 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 19.8 19.3 16.9 -3.0 17.2 21.4 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 22.3 21.4 19.2 -0.6 41.1 42.6 20.8 21.9 23.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 20.6 20.7 17.2 -1.7 29.2 32.0 21.0 22.3 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 19.5 19.1 18.2 -2.2 22.4 27.1 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 19.1 18.8 14.9 -2.7 20.6 24.4 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 20.0 19.5 18.6 -2.2 22.0 26.4 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 14.2 14.0 13.3 -2.3 24.5 27.9 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 20.4 20.1 18.7 -2.2 23.7 27.4 20.9 22.1 23.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 19.8 19.4 18.1 -2.3 20.5 25.2 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 20.2 19.8 18.4 -2.3 21.6 26.0 20.8 22.2 23.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 19.6 19.2 17.0 -2.8 18.7 22.8 20.5 21.8 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 20.6 20.4 17.9 -1.8 27.3 30.8 20.8 22.0 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 21.5 20.1 16.4 -0.8 39.6 41.3 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 20.5 20.2 18.5 -1.8 26.4 30.1 20.8 21.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 22.4 21.1 17.5 -1.1 36.3 38.1 20.8 22.0 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 13.9 13.5 14.3 -2.7 20.9 24.8 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 20.3 19.9 18.8 -2.1 23.1 27.5 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------