***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 21.3 24.1 21.8 0.9 62.6 59.0 21.5 23.0 24.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.8 21.6 0.7 59.9 57.2 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 24.7 24.2 22.0 0.9 63.1 59.4 21.6 23.1 24.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 17.5 17.4 19.4 1.3 68.1 61.8 14.6 15.9 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 24.9 24.6 20.5 1.2 66.0 61.0 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 23.4 23.3 18.5 1.4 69.0 62.9 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 23.1 23.2 21.4 0.6 58.6 56.3 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 12.5 12.5 18.7 1.4 68.9 63.2 9.6 11.0 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 24.2 23.9 21.2 1.2 66.4 61.3 21.1 22.5 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 24.0 23.8 19.7 1.3 67.6 62.3 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 24.3 24.1 20.7 1.3 67.5 62.0 21.3 22.7 24.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 23.4 23.5 19.7 1.4 69.4 63.5 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 24.5 24.2 19.8 1.2 66.2 61.5 21.5 22.9 24.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 24.6 24.0 20.7 1.0 62.9 60.1 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 24.6 24.6 21.3 1.2 68.4 61.6 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 25.1 24.9 20.1 1.2 67.1 61.8 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 22.7 22.9 21.3 0.6 58.8 56.7 20.7 22.1 23.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 23.6 23.3 18.9 1.3 66.5 62.2 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 23.1 23.5 21.8 0.8 61.8 58.6 21.1 22.5 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 18.7 18.5 16.7 1.3 66.6 62.2 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 24.5 23.9 21.8 0.9 63.0 59.3 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.4 23.6 21.3 0.7 59.8 57.6 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 24.6 24.1 21.9 1.0 64.3 60.4 21.5 22.9 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 24.0 23.5 20.7 1.1 64.0 60.6 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 21.3 23.7 20.5 0.8 61.1 58.0 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 23.9 24.5 19.4 2.0 77.2 67.9 20.9 22.3 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 23.2 23.4 21.1 0.7 60.6 57.7 21.2 22.6 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 24.6 24.6 20.3 1.3 69.1 62.4 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 18.7 18.4 18.1 1.2 66.0 62.0 15.8 17.1 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 23.3 23.6 21.7 0.7 60.3 57.4 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------