***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.5 22.9 0.3 54.3 52.3 22.7 24.1 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 23.1 24.9 22.8 0.4 55.1 52.0 23.3 24.5 25.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.8 23.1 0.3 54.3 52.0 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 15.3 17.4 20.8 0.4 55.5 53.2 15.5 17.0 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 22.9 24.8 21.3 0.3 54.6 52.7 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 21.2 23.4 19.2 0.6 57.8 55.0 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 22.6 24.4 22.9 0.4 55.6 52.5 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.0 19.6 0.5 57.1 54.2 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 22.3 24.3 21.6 0.4 55.2 52.9 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.4 24.3 20.3 0.5 56.1 53.5 22.5 23.8 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 22.5 24.7 21.1 0.5 57.1 54.4 22.8 24.1 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 23.6 23.7 20.8 0.6 58.8 55.3 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 24.7 24.8 20.1 0.6 58.5 55.1 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.5 21.1 0.2 52.4 50.5 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 23.1 25.3 21.9 0.6 59.0 55.1 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 23.0 25.3 20.7 0.6 58.0 54.9 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 22.4 24.3 22.8 0.4 55.6 52.2 22.6 23.9 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.8 19.8 0.4 55.3 52.8 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 22.6 24.4 22.9 0.4 54.8 51.8 22.8 24.0 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.1 19.0 17.3 0.4 55.4 52.8 17.0 18.5 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 24.7 24.4 22.3 0.2 53.2 51.6 22.8 24.1 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 22.9 24.7 22.5 0.3 53.6 50.8 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 23.0 24.8 22.8 0.3 54.4 51.7 23.2 24.5 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.1 21.2 0.3 54.2 52.0 22.5 23.8 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 22.6 24.5 21.2 0.2 53.6 52.0 22.8 24.2 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 23.9 24.7 20.6 1.3 67.8 61.2 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 24.5 24.3 22.1 0.3 54.5 52.5 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 23.0 25.2 21.2 0.5 57.2 54.2 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.1 18.9 18.8 0.3 54.4 52.2 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 22.8 24.6 22.9 0.3 54.5 51.8 23.0 24.3 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------