***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 21.9 23.3 21.6 0.1 51.4 49.4 22.2 23.2 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 22.1 23.4 21.5 0.0 49.4 47.8 22.4 23.4 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 22.3 23.5 21.7 0.0 49.7 48.3 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.5 19.3 0.3 58.3 53.3 15.2 16.1 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 22.5 23.7 20.0 0.1 53.2 50.5 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 22.3 22.5 18.2 0.5 61.0 56.1 21.1 22.0 22.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 21.8 23.0 21.4 0.0 49.3 48.0 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.6 18.3 0.3 56.4 53.0 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 21.9 23.1 20.6 0.1 53.1 50.6 22.0 23.0 23.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 23.2 23.0 19.1 0.2 53.6 51.1 22.0 22.9 23.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 23.4 23.4 20.1 0.3 55.9 52.2 22.2 23.1 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.6 19.4 0.4 59.5 54.6 21.4 22.2 22.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 23.5 23.5 19.3 0.3 57.2 53.2 22.3 23.2 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 22.0 23.0 19.9 -0.2 44.8 45.6 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 23.8 24.2 21.0 0.6 63.9 56.1 22.7 23.5 24.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 24.1 24.1 19.7 0.3 57.8 53.3 22.8 23.7 24.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 21.5 22.6 21.2 -0.1 48.5 47.2 21.7 22.7 23.6 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 21.5 22.4 18.4 0.0 50.6 49.5 21.6 22.4 23.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 21.7 22.9 21.5 0.0 49.9 48.1 22.0 23.0 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.9 17.7 16.2 0.2 53.6 51.4 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 22.0 23.2 21.3 0.0 49.3 48.2 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 21.9 23.1 21.0 -0.1 46.7 46.1 22.2 23.2 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 22.0 23.3 21.5 0.0 50.3 48.6 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 21.7 22.7 20.0 -0.1 47.4 47.4 21.9 22.8 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 22.1 23.2 20.2 0.0 50.4 48.6 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 23.3 23.6 19.2 1.1 73.4 64.7 21.6 22.5 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 21.9 23.1 20.9 0.0 50.6 48.9 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 23.8 24.0 20.0 0.5 60.9 54.8 22.6 23.5 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 16.4 17.4 17.5 0.0 50.1 49.2 16.6 17.4 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 21.9 23.2 21.5 0.0 49.3 47.8 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------