***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9.9 11.9 25.3 147.1 77.6 64.7 3.0 5.4 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 12.9 15.4 23.4 140.2 75.6 63.5 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 12.5 14.4 23.9 141.4 76.1 64.3 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 15.3 23.6 26.6 131.3 73.0 61.5 7.1 12.5 19.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 12.2 13.0 24.1 126.4 71.5 63.1 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 16.4 18.3 29.0 130.8 72.9 66.0 5.3 9.4 15.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 14.3 16.5 24.2 141.5 75.9 64.7 3.6 7.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 23.1 30.6 27.4 115.3 67.5 60.3 11.0 18.9 29.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 15.1 15.2 24.1 124.2 70.8 62.6 4.4 8.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 16.3 16.1 27.6 119.0 68.9 61.4 5.3 9.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.0 13.9 23.4 117.4 68.7 61.2 4.5 8.2 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.7 16.6 23.2 114.3 67.4 59.9 6.0 10.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.1 14.8 24.2 115.7 68.1 60.2 5.7 9.4 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.4 19.0 26.5 117.0 68.0 57.0 5.3 10.4 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 8.1 15.1 25.9 146.2 76.9 63.2 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 9.7 13.0 22.8 115.7 68.1 60.4 4.7 8.0 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 15.8 17.4 22.2 130.0 72.6 62.3 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.3 18.0 28.1 116.0 67.5 60.2 5.5 10.3 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 16.1 19.2 23.6 141.0 76.0 62.8 4.0 8.0 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.1 17.5 28.9 118.0 68.3 60.4 6.2 10.7 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 12.0 12.8 23.2 130.9 72.9 64.3 3.9 6.7 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.1 22.4 127.4 71.8 61.1 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 16.2 18.8 24.0 137.5 74.9 61.2 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.8 17.5 25.1 122.7 70.0 60.7 4.7 9.1 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 14.6 17.9 28.3 150.9 78.3 67.5 3.9 7.3 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 10.1 13.1 23.3 113.9 67.0 59.0 5.0 8.4 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 12.7 15.7 27.8 152.8 78.9 66.6 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.4 13.2 26.4 134.7 73.8 62.4 3.9 6.8 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 15.7 20.8 27.9 115.5 67.3 59.9 6.8 12.4 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 14.0 16.8 24.8 145.6 77.1 64.9 3.7 7.1 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------