***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 17.6 17.1 17.0 91.3 58.6 47.3 7.8 13.5 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.6 14.6 17.5 104.0 64.1 48.3 5.1 9.6 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 7.7 18.1 17.7 96.8 61.0 46.4 7.7 13.2 20.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.9 14.7 17.4 86.9 56.6 45.6 6.7 12.0 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.5 15.9 17.5 92.1 58.9 46.5 5.8 11.5 20.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 6.4 12.0 18.1 80.7 51.9 43.0 6.7 11.4 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.3 14.9 17.5 105.8 64.6 49.3 4.7 9.2 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 12.2 20.8 18.1 82.9 53.5 43.6 12.1 19.0 27.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 6.6 13.3 17.5 87.7 57.0 45.0 6.5 11.0 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.6 14.7 19.6 85.6 55.1 43.9 7.4 12.7 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.4 12.7 16.9 93.1 59.2 46.4 4.8 9.4 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 6.0 11.3 15.7 83.9 54.5 44.2 5.9 10.0 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.5 10.3 17.1 82.1 53.9 44.2 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.8 17.8 22.8 95.2 59.5 44.0 6.5 12.9 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.6 7.6 15.6 86.0 56.9 43.9 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 6.8 14.6 17.0 89.5 57.6 46.1 6.9 11.9 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.3 13.5 16.1 97.6 61.7 47.1 4.8 9.3 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.3 14.8 21.6 87.3 56.1 44.5 7.1 12.3 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 7.6 18.8 17.9 103.6 64.1 47.5 7.3 12.6 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.0 15.1 20.6 83.6 54.0 44.3 8.3 13.5 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 14.4 13.8 16.5 88.2 58.0 45.8 5.9 10.8 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 6.4 15.5 16.3 95.0 60.7 46.2 6.1 11.4 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 6.8 17.0 18.4 102.6 63.7 46.8 6.7 11.7 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 8.0 17.1 20.5 92.9 59.0 45.1 7.8 13.4 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 8.0 15.4 17.5 84.2 55.4 45.6 7.6 13.3 20.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 5.3 10.0 15.2 77.7 51.7 43.0 5.0 9.5 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.1 14.8 17.5 87.3 56.6 45.6 7.0 12.3 19.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 5.1 10.7 16.3 83.9 55.5 44.3 5.5 9.3 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 11.6 20.5 21.3 87.0 55.9 44.7 11.9 18.0 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 7.4 18.7 18.0 104.8 64.2 48.3 7.3 12.6 19.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------