***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.6 13.8 21.8 119.2 69.4 55.7 5.4 8.6 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.4 15.1 19.0 118.0 68.9 54.8 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.8 14.1 20.8 114.4 67.7 53.6 4.3 8.1 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 7.3 15.0 18.7 89.7 57.9 46.7 7.2 12.1 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 7.7 13.6 18.0 88.6 57.7 46.6 7.4 11.5 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.2 10.4 19.1 83.4 53.6 45.3 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.2 14.0 18.0 113.2 67.0 53.4 4.6 8.4 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 22.2 21.1 20.0 87.3 55.9 48.5 11.2 18.3 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.9 18.4 85.7 56.7 46.7 4.5 8.1 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.1 21.0 85.1 55.0 47.1 7.6 12.4 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 6.0 11.1 16.2 85.0 56.2 46.5 6.2 9.7 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.7 11.2 16.1 83.5 54.8 46.6 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.3 10.3 17.2 81.8 53.8 45.0 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.9 16.6 24.7 97.8 60.6 51.8 7.1 12.4 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.9 12.2 16.2 86.4 57.4 45.5 5.5 9.8 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.9 9.7 16.0 82.3 54.5 45.1 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.0 17.3 108.0 65.8 53.2 3.0 5.9 10.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.3 11.7 22.9 85.1 54.2 47.7 5.5 10.2 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.7 15.3 19.9 118.3 69.1 54.7 5.3 9.1 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.9 13.0 22.9 87.6 54.9 49.0 6.7 11.3 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.1 10.3 19.8 100.9 63.0 51.4 4.8 7.6 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.2 15.8 18.3 106.4 65.3 53.1 5.1 9.7 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.7 10.5 20.5 112.5 67.1 52.8 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.4 13.0 21.7 93.1 58.6 49.5 5.9 10.2 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.8 22.3 104.7 64.1 52.3 4.2 6.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.6 10.8 15.8 80.4 53.5 44.4 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.0 13.5 22.2 113.2 67.1 54.1 5.5 8.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.3 10.6 16.7 84.0 55.4 44.4 5.4 9.2 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 20.9 19.5 23.2 87.3 55.2 49.3 9.9 16.8 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.5 13.6 20.0 122.1 70.2 55.2 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------