***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 34.1 43.8 78.7 88.1 46.2 43.3 35.2 46.3 59.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 48.0 40.3 71.9 87.1 46.4 43.4 32.3 42.7 54.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 32.3 42.4 75.9 86.9 44.7 42.2 33.5 46.6 61.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 47.6 49.9 75.1 73.6 34.1 35.0 48.9 62.7 78.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 34.3 37.9 72.2 75.0 35.0 35.2 36.3 50.1 66.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 37.9 39.6 81.3 73.2 30.5 32.2 41.2 53.5 67.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 29.5 38.5 71.3 86.7 45.8 43.2 29.7 41.5 55.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 70.9 71.3 80.3 70.4 29.0 30.4 75.3 91.2 108.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 31.3 33.9 73.4 74.0 32.6 33.3 34.2 46.2 60.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 43.7 44.6 83.5 72.0 29.5 31.0 47.1 59.5 73.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 32.5 34.1 69.7 72.2 32.9 33.6 34.1 45.2 57.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 33.6 34.4 68.6 70.2 30.0 31.1 36.5 48.7 62.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 30.5 31.8 72.9 69.7 29.6 31.1 33.8 44.2 55.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 44.4 49.6 92.0 78.5 35.9 36.1 47.1 62.3 79.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 32.5 36.0 68.9 75.1 38.5 38.0 33.0 42.6 53.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 33.6 34.7 69.0 70.7 31.4 32.7 35.6 45.4 56.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 48.7 34.8 67.4 81.8 42.3 39.9 28.1 40.9 56.0 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 45.8 45.8 90.1 72.9 28.8 30.7 49.2 62.2 76.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 60.3 51.2 73.8 87.5 46.5 43.3 41.4 53.7 67.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 44.1 43.4 88.7 71.1 27.5 29.5 47.0 59.0 71.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 31.3 36.4 73.6 80.3 38.7 37.9 33.0 43.9 56.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 54.4 40.6 69.2 80.0 40.7 39.2 35.2 47.5 61.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 32.4 41.3 76.8 86.7 45.2 42.5 33.0 44.8 58.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 42.4 46.4 83.8 77.9 34.4 34.9 45.3 58.7 73.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 54.9 40.2 83.0 82.1 40.4 39.4 34.9 47.7 62.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 32.1 31.9 67.6 67.3 27.2 29.2 35.4 45.2 56.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 37.0 45.2 82.7 86.0 43.9 41.7 37.3 49.3 62.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 33.7 35.6 70.5 71.9 34.3 35.0 34.8 44.2 54.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 64.5 65.1 90.3 73.1 29.6 31.2 67.8 81.1 95.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 33.3 43.9 75.0 89.6 48.2 45.0 33.4 45.5 59.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------